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NL100 AQo line check

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Yozan
Joined: 01.01.2010

V is 27k hands
20/17/ 6.7/60
fcbet 3bp: 67/32/33
BR: 25, fold River: 64
BIP vs missed 80 (35 - 3bp)
WTSD 23 WWSF 41

BTN: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (SB): $105.18 (105.2 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $146.42 (146.4 bb)
MP: $42.83 (42.8 bb)
CO: $107.58 (107.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q♦ A♠
2 folds, CO raises to $3, BTN calls $3, Hero raises to $13.50, 2 folds, BTN calls $10.50

Flop: ($31) Q♣ 8♦ 4♠ (2 players)
Hero bets $17.50, BTN calls $17.50

Turn: ($66) J♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($66) 5♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $29, BTN raises to $69 and is all-in, Hero folds


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6 replies
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

I'm not sure if your super small bet induced him to bluff here.

1. The River 5 doesn't really help his range. I don't see him having 45s/85s here. 55? 55 may/may not call the Flop bet.

2. This board is not conducive to slowplay on the Turn when there are 3 straight cards and any T/9 makes the board really ugly

I think he is purely repping 55 here, but at the same time I feel like this guy probably wouldn't bluff here.

So I would reluctantly fold this.


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Yozan
Joined: 01.01.2010

I also thought at 55, but he's huge fcbet stat give me reasons to believe that he's the type of Villain that gives up a lot OTF when missed he's set, especially with 2overs-flop.
- Make's sense somehow 9Ts that can float flop with a backdoor.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

i guess he might also play T9s this way but I would expect the average straightforward opponent to bet the Turn.


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Yozan
Joined: 01.01.2010
Yozan
Joined: 01.01.2010
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

hmm on second thought your bet wasn't all that small. IT's around 40% pot.

I think half pot bet is the most reasonable size. A large bet only makes sense if you are repping something which whiffed a turn checkraise. If not u would mostly be repping a 2-street hand and the most sensible size is a half pot bet (medium strength made hand) and you would balance ur value hands with some bluffs.

Betting large could make sense as an exploit play if we knew that we were ahead like >95% of the time since we have TPTK and villain almost never has better once he checks back the turn.


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