Moving up limits

They're doing this at NL 10 now?
When I moved up to NL 25 I noticed this.

As a result, I'm back to NL 5 when I play NLHE

But think about it:
If a player has a FD vs your UTG raise, which he merely called pre.

Just an example:

Board: A♥7♠3♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
UTG    53.91%  53.56%   0.35% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KQo }
MP3    46.09%  45.74%   0.35% { Kh9h }

This is from his point of view.
You CBet, and he shoves.

He has 46% equity vs your perceived range.
If he can get you to fold even 20% of the time, he wins the pot plus your CBet.

The other 80% of the hands, he wins 46% of them.

Easy money.

OTOH, he could have trip 7s, even trip 3s

How do you defend against this?
If I knew, I'd be at NL 50, not back at NL 5

Cheers,
--VS

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
This is from his point of view.
You CBet, and he shoves.

He has 46% equity vs your perceived range.
If he can get you to fold even 20% of the time, he wins the pot plus your CBet.

The other 80% of the hands, he wins 46% of them.

Why does villain think hero will be calling a shove with JTs or T9s here?

Of the hands you posted Hero is only calling with ATs+, AJo+. You've not included sets either.

I didn't mention JTs or T9s

Of the hands you posted Hero is only calling with ATs+, AJo+. You've not included sets either.

There aren't any hands posted in this thread...

I'm not sure what you're saying...

All the best,
--VS

Originally posted by MJPerry

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
This is from his point of view.
You CBet, and he shoves.

He has 46% equity vs your perceived range.
If he can get you to fold even 20% of the time, he wins the pot plus your CBet.

The other 80% of the hands, he wins 46% of them.

Why does villain think hero will be calling a shove with JTs or T9s here?

Of the hands you posted Hero is only calling with ATs+, AJo+. You've not included sets either.

I assume it's the hands villian think hero will be cbetting with, not calling a shove.

Sounds strange to me. 15bbs/100 @nl5 and you have problems @ nl10?

And players aren't aggressive at all...

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I'm not sure what you're saying...

You said that versus that range of hands above, villain has 46% equity. But that's versus that entire range, most of which won't call a shove and sets aren't included in that range either.

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
I didn't mention JTs or T9s

Erm...

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
{ 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KQo }

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
There aren't any hands posted in this thread...

Pretty sure these are hands and not some sort of secret code:

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
UTG    53.91%  53.56%   0.35% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KQo }

OK, I get what you meant now. I'm slow, but I get there eventually...

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
There aren't any hands posted in this thread...

Originally posted by MJPerry
Pretty sure these are hands and not some sort of secret code:

Originally posted by VorpalF2F
UTG    53.91%  53.56%   0.35% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KQo }

Well, that I would call a "range", to me "post a hand" mean to post a hand history, and there were not hand histories posted, so I got totally confused.
I get confused easily it seems.

So to clarify.

My attempt to was to show an example of a hand where :
Preflop: A player in MP holding K:h9:h flat-calls a UTG open raise.
Flop comes A:h7:s3:h

UTG CBets.
MP shoves with a nut flush draw.

I think that the range I posted is reasonable for a UTG open-raise and CBet.

If player in MP assumes that the range I posted is UTGs range, then he has 46% equity if UTG calls, and he has the pot right now if UTG folds.

You originally asked:

Why does villain think hero will be calling a shove with JTs or T9s here?

An MP shoving a nut flush draw has a fair idea of UTG's range because UTG opened, then CBet the flop. I don't think MP really cares WHAT part of that range UTG folds or calls with.

Since UTG folds part of his range, the shove by MP would be profitable over the long term. That is why they do it.

Yes, he has 46% equity vs the entire range, most of which won't call a shove, but if they won't call a shove, he gets the pot right now.

So to analyse this in greater detail, we would need to count how many combos would call a shove, and how many would fold, and what the equity of a nut flush draw would be against the range that would call.

Of the range given, what UTG sub-range would call the shove?

The entire range is 95 combos
Lets say he calls with 88+,AKs,AKo (42 combos)
Therefore he folds AQs-ATs,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,AQo-AJo,KQo (53 combos)
(Equilab is taking care of card removal effects)

MP3's equity vs the calling range is:

Board: A♥7♠3♥
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    58.19%  58.19%   0.00% { 88+, AKs, AKo }
MP3    41.81%  41.81%   0.00% { Kh9h }

So: MP3 wins 53/95 (55%) of the time due to UTG folding.
and 41.8% the other 45% (18%) so total EV of this play is 55% + 18% = 73%

Sorry for the confusion.

From there, it is just a matter of picking UTGs open-raising range, and his fold-to-flop-reraise stat to see whether shoving a nut flush draw is +EV

Cheers,
--VS

I think there is something wrong here. I think what you are trying to explain here is this: (i've seen this in a video so if something is wrong, someone more knolegeble can correct)

Base fold equity formula:

EV = [Ev(fold)]*x + [Ev(call)]* (1-x)

x - % of time he folds
(1-x) - % of times he calls
Ev(fold) - the amont in the pot when he folds

Ev(call) = [total pot] * equity - our shove

So .. to use your example (i will modify his Cbet and call range to what i think is more appropriate but you can use whatever range you want using the formula above):

UTG open range : { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KQo } wich is 9.5% and 95 combos

His Cbet range : { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JhTh, AJo+, KQo } wich is 9% and 89 combos (tho i think this is a bit loose and we can cat any of the hands whithout an A that don't have a hart)

His caling range : { JJ+, AJs+, QhJh, Jh10h, AJo+} wich is 5.6% and 53 combos (tho i think this is a loose call and we can remove some more combos from this range especialy 88 to KK and Jh10h and maybe even AJ )

Let's assume everyone has 100bb staks, the open is 3bb , cbet 5bb (2/3 pot)

Ev(call) = [total pot] * equity - our shove

Ev(call) = (100bb from him + 100bb from us + 1bb from BB + 0.5 bb from SB) * 39% (ower equity angainst his calling range) - 97bb (100bb - 3bb flat calling pre)

Ev(call) = 201.5 * 0.39 - 97
Ev(call) = -18.42

EV = [Ev(fold)]*x + [Ev(call)]* (1-x)

EV = (3bb from him + 3bb from us + 1.5bb from blins + 5bb cbet) * 0.404 ( 36 combos that he folds -- 36/89 = 0.404) + -18.42 (calculated above) * 0.596 ( combos that he folds -- 53/89 = 0.595)

EV = 12.5 * 0.404 + (-18.42) * 0.596
EV = 5.05 + (-10.98)
EV = -5.93

So we are loosing 5.93bb everytime we do this.

You can play with ranges and bet sizeing and see different situations.
I hope this helps.

How are you playing back against these guys? When they raise are you getting it all in with an over pair or TPTK? I tend to call if they raise me on the flop with a OESD or FD. They normally lose their balls if they don't hit on the turn.

Originally posted by Hades1313
So we are loosing 5.93bb everytime we do this.

I used MP3 and UTG throughout, because in my scenario, there was no "hero" nor "villain" -- no "we", no "them"

So are you saying that shoving with 46% equity is -EV?
Or are you saying that calling such a shove is -EV?

From my previous post:

From there, it is just a matter of picking UTGs open-raising range, and his fold-to-flop-reraise stat to see whether shoving a nut flush draw is +EV

If you pick different ranges, the outcome will be totally different.
If you assume a different fold-to-flop-reraise stat for UTG, the outcome will be different.

I will try to do the calculation correctly, using the original ranges and combos, so I can see where I went wrong.

Preflop
Pot is 1.5 BB (blinds)
UTG opens 3x, MP3 calls

Flop
Pot is 7.5 BB
UTG bets 3.5 BB, MP3 shoves, UTG ???

EV calculation:
EV(utg folds):
MP3 wins 11 BB

EV(utg calls)
Pot is 201.5 BB
MP3 wins (Eq * 201.5 BB) - 97 BB

In the previous post, of the 95 combos I assumed that UTG would call with 42 combos, which means he folds with 53 combos.

So when UTG folds,
MP3 wins 11 * 53/95 or 6.14

When UTG calls:
The equity vs the calling part of UTGs range was approx 42%
MP3 wins
(201.5 * .42) - 97 = -5.65

Net EV is then 6.14 - 5.65 = 0.49

So using your formula, and the assumptions from my previous post, the shove is barely better than break even.

Unless I screwed it up yet again

So clearly this move, if used at all, has to be used vs carefully selected UTG

Also, raising the CBet does not need to be a shove.

Thanks for pointing out the correct formula.

I think, though that after all this we can see WHY some players might shove a flush draw over a CBet, especially if facing a UTG known to fold to a flop raise.

Cheers,
--VS

Originally posted by ferrye
I have played 1 month NL5 Zoom and have raised my bankroll pretty well.
Today I took a shot at NL10 Zoom and played almost 2000 hands.
Amount won today extremely low, around 1/100bb.

So you played something like 2 hours?

/thread

Of course you can't "defend" when someone flop a nut flush draw and shoves, just as little as you can defend when someone flops the nuts and shoves. But you auto-gain anyway since shoving a nut flush draw (or the nuts) against a c-bet in a singly raised pot is far from optimal (whatever "optimal" is).