Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:
$0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
Known players:
[tg]BU$95.48:///////;SB$32.87:///////;BB (Hero)$30.79:///////;MP2$26.03:///////;MP3$46.50:///////;CO$55.72:///////;[/tg]
Preflop: Hero is BB with K:s, T:c.
3 folds, BU raises to $0.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $2.75, BU calls $2.00.
Flop: ($5.6) K:c, 9:h, T:s (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, BU calls $3.50.
Turn: ($12.6) 8:d (2 players)
Hero bets $7.90, BU calls $7.90.
River: ($28.4) Q:h (2 players)
Hero checks, BU bets $81.33(All-In), Hero folds, BU gets uncalled bet back.
Final Pot: $28.4.
Villain stats: VPIP/PFR/AF/3bet/F3bet 29/14/2.0/8.3/- over 28 hands saw him 3-betting AA before and pot every street and shove the river on a QT3 6 9 board before. (ATS=29%)
Preflop: I don't like calling with this hand OOP. I would call KJo and KTs here as bottom of my range and 3-bet KTo and K9s.
When he call's my 3bet his range is stronger and I put him on something like 77-QQ, suited broadways, 98s+, AJo-AKo, KQo
Flop: Nice flop for us, we are often ahead so we bet for value. He calls, narrowing his range to Kx, Tx, QJ, 99-QQ, AJ-AQ (gutshots)
Turn: A great card for us, doesn't change all that much, so against his range he continues on flop we have 77% equity.. So we bet again and he calls again. In retrospect I also see us check/raise this turn to balance check/folding here but I'm not sure if villain would bet himself here often enough.
Now I think his range looks something like AK, KQ, KJs, KTs, QJs, 99-TT maybe a stubborn AJ, JJ and 87s.
River: Boom... worst card in the deck.. Against his total range we now have 24% equity. So how do we advance?
1) check/fold
2) check/call
3) blockbet/fold
4) shove
Blockbet/fold and shoving only will be called with better hands then ours so I don't think it's a valid option here
So we should start with checking, once we check... he goes allin... So I think he'll check behind two pair and trips on this board as well as AK hands that are still in it and he shoves the nuts and maybe the hands like 87s that missed (I'm not even sure if NL25 will able to pull this off). So against his shoving range we only have 14% equity and we get pot odds of 27% so we fold.
This was my hand analysis, does this makes sense or am I going wrong somewhere?
