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NL25 AK bluffcatch or fold?

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BotiaKiraly
Joined: 18.03.2009

Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2471366
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $41.28 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 2.4, Hands: 136172
BB: $25.00 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 2.8, Hands: 9083
UTG: $12.13 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 6, AF: 2.1, Hands: 4393
MP: $59.18 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 18, 3B: 3, AF: 2.2, Hands: 237
CO: $28.91 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 17, 3B: 6, AF: 2.1, Hands: 1464
BTN: $54.32 - VPIP: 50, PFR: 17, 3B: 5, AF: 3.1, Hands: 433

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with K :club: A :spade:
2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, Hero raises to $3.25, 2 folds, BTN calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) 8 :club: K :spade: J :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $5.00, BTN calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) 7 :club: (2 players)
Hero bets $12.00, BTN calls $12

River: ($41.50) T :heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $34.07, Hero folds

Hello,

so this guy calls pretty light F and T and I once caught him betting a 75% river bet with missed FD in a huge pot.

I was betting huge on flop and turn to get value from his calls, and the rivercard was one of the worse.

BUT

with his range of: AQs,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T9s,Ks8s,Qs8s,Ts8s,9s8s,Qs7s,9s7s,8s7s,AQo,K9o+,QTo+,J8o+,T9o

I have 30% equity and I only need 25% to call

or is that range to optimistic?


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2 replies
Saren113
Joined: 06.03.2009

That ranges if very reasonable. You don't believe he can have KT in his range tho?

And people in general are betting their value on the river with a smaller size. So his big size would actually make me look him up more often.

Does villain like to bet in general when checked to?

If that's the case I would probably just check raise that turn AI. It's like KJ 88 77 that got us beat, and maybe from time to time he got something like K8 K7.

But now when I think about it, we block all draws, so I guess it make sense to assume he got less draw combos.

In a 3b pot I think this hand is to good to fold tbh, with those odds.

And I wouldn't call this spot for bluff catching, Because there is still plenty that you beat. And you give him a chance to bluff with all his busted draws.

Just in general I would assume that he would raise somewhere in the hand with everything that beats you.


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Hi,

This board runout gives him to bluff a lot with his missed flushdraws and I don´t see him having too many 9x hands (maybe some 98s, J9s, Ac9c -he also can´t have As9s). Also he can always turn some worse showdown value hands into bluffs.
Likely I can´t find to way fold tptk especially since two flushdraws missed. He is not always shoving any two pairs and I think he should also fold turn quite often AQ/Q9 that gives him the nuts.

best regards,


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