nl25 AA

Flop is imo much better to ch/b. Value is limited and we have A :spade:, which means it's easy to play almost every turn card.

The sizing means imo 95% of the time that he has two pair + and we can outcount all draws. Some of the time it may be air but very rarely so without a read calling turn and folding river is standard here.

hi,

ty for your comment.

i would not miss flop cbet for value against him on this flop.
there is no "any" cards would be folded by villain. I wanted to build the pot on flop and on turn.

my problem is his 2p+ range. Includs K9 KQ and sets of course, if Q3, K3 etc also, why would be better chb on flop?

It's pretty hard to find a worse hand than AA that calls 3 streets on this texture. KJ, KT are the best worse hands than yours he can have and maybe some of the time may call 3 streets. If we check the flop he may bet two streets as a bluff with whatever and if he checks the turn we are 100% sure we can bet two streets for value. Also if he is cappable of going CR on flop as a bluff w. a hand like T8 you are going to fold the best hand against his semibluff.

On turn because he minraises I expect his range to be like two pair+ but we have good enough odds to call and if the board pairs on river and he checks we likely have the best hand. So if he has a hand like Q9 the kings and threes are our outs and he ofc. checks the river on a paired board and we realize the equity.

Hi mcfly10

I can't see how we can justify checking the flop vs a guy that looks to be a station AND we are in a BTN vs BB spot where we minraised preflop and his range is super wide.

So I think you played it fine with the info you have.

And @ tukio: you don't need 3 streets of value but you can get at least 2. Although a guy that goes to showdown 34% of the time will have all sorts of Kx in his range on this texture (if he were to call down) and maybe Qx too.