Hi!
This is a perfect hand to do some math since now you actually can define range a bit better(oponent has decent looking stats with extremly low 3bet% but that is quite likely samplesize.Im pretty sure that 33,22 guy doesnt raise just 3% of hands but if I were pesimistic I would say at least 8% and that is on average. This is SB vs BU so he will obviously 3bet more(how much exactly is hard to say)...
a) Pesimistic version:
Equity Win Tie
BU 55.34% 55.30% 0.04% Kd8c
SB 44.66% 44.62% 0.04% 44+, A5s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, A7o+, KJo+, QJo
b) Imo more realistic version
Equity Win Tie
BU 59.54% 59.18% 0.36% Kd8c
SB 40.46% 40.10% 0.36% 44+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, A5o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo
So as you see you flop equity is pretty decent and it should be clear that you are indeed a favourite on this flop. That is quite obvious just because most of overcard combos missed the flop. Now you have to decide how to play your hand...
a) passive by calldown
b) agressive by making a raise: 1)raise flop
2)call flop/raise good turn
Pros,cons:
a) This is a safe version. You avoid hard decitions when faced with further action, you allow him to hand himself when he goes for stupid bets,you may collect a bit more when he checks river and then decide to call your bet ultra wide.
Problems with this line is obviously that you dont exploit your equity edge, assuming that a decent player will often go for stupid bets is not realistic so this factor is greatly diminished here
b) Raising exploits equity edge, it puts him under pressure where he will be forced to make decitions(so if you are a better player this will result in further profit). Obvious problem with this line is that it also demands good play from you since there will be potential hard decitions along the way.
What now:
If you are unsure about your play or that you assume he is rly good and are afraid of him I dont mind just calling down for practical reasons.Also to be frank this line is by far from being bad.
However Im quite sure that putting in a raise has higher EV here for sure. Just the fact that you have about 55-60% equity and that board is so drawheavy which will make him call you down light is good enough for me.
Deciding where to raise depends on stats/reads and your overall play in this spot (aka balance). I personally think that as default I go for fastplay just because I think that his turn cbet range will automaticly be stronger(since he will check some Ax at least) and also since flop raise may induce more calldowns or even spews. Also important to think is how you play other hands in this spot.How do you go with monsters,TP,FDs,OESDs,gutshots,air,Ahigh,...
I personally will have a split range and try to make it as balanced as possible. I certainly would have a flop raising range. 8x,slowplayed AA,KK,QQ,JJ,88,55,J8 are there and I would probably fastplay SDs and some gutshots(like QT,Q9). Then for my call flop/raise turn range I would have Jx and sometimes I would mix some from above mentioned monsters and good draws there also...mostly talking about FDs.
With hands like Ahigh,overcards,some gutshots,spade BDFDs I would call and reevaluate on turn card. With stronger Ahigh,5x and pockets Im certainly looking to SD with hand like KQ I intend to see river at least. With those guthsots,BDFDs and FDs I will raise turns sometimes.
As played there is no way to fold this at any point. Your hand is clearly at the top of your range which means that if you fold this one then you fold close to 100% ( and that is very bad). Here folding is super bad since he should valuebet worse hands at this point(basically any pair and probably even AK) And clearly he will also have hands like 9Ts,KQ,KJ,QT,............. so calling here with any pair,Ahigh is mandatory imo. KQ at this point is rly close since rivercard is an ultra brick.
My 2 cents:D
