PokerStars - $1 PL Hi FAST (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 50.57 BB
UTG: 100.5 BB
MP: 464.84 BB
CO: 117.15 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J♦ 7♣ A♦ 7♦
fold, MP raises to 3 BB, CO calls 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold
Flop: (13 BB, 4 players) 3♦ T♦ 8♣
SB bets 9.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 9.5 BB
Turn: (32 BB, 2 players) Q♣
SB checks, Hero bets 22 BB
Hey guys, what's up. I'm a midstakes NL reg looking to make the switch to PLO. In the past I've been too lazy in discussing and reviewing hands, so it's time to step up my forum game ♦ I'm still sort of clueless about PLO so any and all critique is welcome.
As to the hand, I guess it's mostly a line/thought process check. Mostly interested in turn play.
It's zoom and my sample sizes are small so no real reads. MP and SB seem like regs, with MP a bit on the tighter side in my sample (22/15 with 5% 3bet), SB a bit more active (23/21/7), only about 100 hands on both though. CO is 33/0 over only 12 hands, but iirc he was only playing one table so he seems to be on the fishy side.
PRE -- Preflop call is fine, right? Don't see any reason whatsoever to 3bet, but we have a nut suit and some straight/set potential in position multiway with an assumed fish so might as well peel a flop.
FLOP -- SB is a reg and we have no reason to think he's spazzing out or anything, so his leading range here into 3 players is likely to be pretty strong. I put him on roughly sets, T8 (maybe not all bare two pairs though) and wraps/combo draws.
Against this range we have something like 40-50% equity, with good playability since we're IP and our outs are nutted, so we're obviously not folding. Raising doesn't seem too hot either since we have roughly 33% against a stack-off range, so our raise is relying purely on fold equity to show a profit. However, PPT says he'll have a hand he'll stack off with (TT, T8+ with a decent draw, or a wrap + FD type of hand) about 40-50% of the time, so raising seems roughly breakeven at best (if we raise to $30, we need about 60% FE to BE, which is the maximum we might have). Calling is clearly very +EV though, so that's our choice.
TURN -- We turn the nut gutshot for some added outs, and villain checks. I thought about checking back to realize equity since getting x/raised sucks, but after reviewing the hand I think this is a very clear bet. Do you guys agree?
I think villain would probably bet most of his J9 himself, at least unless he has strong redraws, since so many river cards suck for bare-ish J9 and our range is full of decent-equity-but-non-nutted mixtures of pair/2pair/SD/FD that probably don't bet too often when checked to (is this true? not entirely sure about my range assesments yet). I also don't think he'll x/raise much else than J9 here (agree?). So again, looking at PPT, villain should have only few J9 here, but a lot of two pairs, sets and medium non-nutted draws.
We only have around 30% equity against that kind of a range, but he will have a hard time playing turn+river OOP when we start betting. Also, we'll still hit a very nutted hand on plenty of rivers. I guess the sizing is ok? Any bigger and we'll have only a smallish bet left on the river and/or we'll have to bet/call with pretty terrible equity.
In practice I got shoved on - easy fold, yes? If villain calls turn, which cards would you ship OTR? Aside from those that we hit, I think we should consider bluffing mostly on some straightening cards, since clubs and board pairs connect well with villain's x/calling range and on a blank he might hero thinking a lot of stuff missed.
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...WTF, I didn't mean to write such an essay.
TL;DR: standard bluff on the turn with a weakish but nutted draw against a range full of medium strength hands? ♦
Didn't want to bring it up since I already figured it's a clear mistake and not worth discussing really. He had QJ9 with diamonds for the turned flush draw, which is the type of J9 I thought he might check occasionally, so not too much new information there I guess.