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flush paired board river

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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

partypoker - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 131.91 BB (VPIP: 14.51, PFR: 11.98, 3Bet Preflop: 3.94, Hands: 1,054)
Hero (SB): 394.77 BB
BB: 102.63 BB (VPIP: 23.56, PFR: 18.85, 3Bet Preflop: 10.39, Hands: 193)
UTG: 306.77 BB (VPIP: 18.60, PFR: 14.63, 3Bet Preflop: 7.03, Hands: 1,398)
MP: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 15.02, PFR: 11.84, 3Bet Preflop: 3.32, Hands: 580)
CO: 124.68 BB (VPIP: 19.94, PFR: 6.56, 3Bet Preflop: 3.91, Hands: 331)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5♦ 6♦

fold, fold, CO calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 6 BB, BB calls 5 BB, CO calls 5 BB

Flop: (18 BB, 3 players) 2♦ 4♥ 9♣
Hero bets 10 BB, BB calls 10 BB, CO calls 10 BB

Turn: (48 BB, 3 players) K♦
Hero bets 28 BB, fold, CO calls 28 BB

River: (104 BB, 2 players) 9♦
Hero bets 82 BB, CO calls 80.68 BB and is all-in

Spoiler

Hero shows 5♦ 6♦ (Flush, King High) (Pre 38%, Flop 22%, Turn 27%)
CO mucks 9♥ 8♥ (Three of a Kind, Nines) (Pre 62%, Flop 78%, Turn 73%)
Hero wins 1.32 BB
Hero wins 262.36 BB

is shove max ev on river? What if board is not paired? I shoved, because I think he will have more 9x hands that call anyway, and if it wouldnt be paired, I could bet 1/2 pot to get called more often by 2nd pairs?

what would be optimal raise size vs limpers? I raise usually 5bb, but fish never folds vs such size. My range is mostly value and playable hands, so I guess I can raise bigger, like 8bb if they dont fold anyway? and choose highest size until they call?


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Preflop: I think raise is not good here. He has a tight limping range, so unless you know he folds a lot vs cbets, completing the SB will often be the option with the higher EV.

Postflop: Definitely 3-barrel here. He won't have all that many boats and flushes.

1. Optimistic
Board: 2d4h9cKd9d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 61.29% 61.29% 0.00% { 6d5d }
MP3 38.71% 38.71% 0.00% { 99, 44, 22, A9s, KQs, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, A9o }

You are a 61% favourite vs hands that are likely to call down
*note that this is vs his River calling range, not his River range, so you only need >50% equity to value bet here

2. Normal estimate
Board: 2d4h9cKd9d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 50.00% 50.00% 0.00% { 6d5d }
MP3 50.00% 50.00% 0.00% { 99, 44, 22, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s, AdQd, KhQh, KcQc, AdJd, AdTd }

3. Conservative
Board: 2d4h9cKd9d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.67% 41.67% 0.00% { 6d5d }
MP3 58.33% 58.33% 0.00% { 99, 44, 22, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 98s, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad8d, Ad4d }

For *3, note that you have 42% equity. Even though you cannot value bet, that doesn't mean that the EV of betting isn't the highest (compared to c/c or c/f).


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