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QKo, 4b

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ivancro
Joined: 12.02.2008

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

SB: $153.60 (153.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $106.25 (106.3 bb)
MP: $110 (110 bb)
CO: $102.70 (102.7 bb)
BTN: $183 (183 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q K
3 folds, BTN raises to $2, SB folds, Hero raises to $8, BTN raises to $19, Hero calls $11

Flop: ($38.50) A 6 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $18, Hero calls $18

Turn: ($74.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($74.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $146 and is all-in, Hero ?

24/18
BU RFI: 63%
BU F3B: 70%
4bet range 5%
BU 4bet range: 12%(46)
AGG% 49-33-35
CB SRP: 70-40-40
CB 3BP: 70-40-0(2)
WWSF 50%

He 4bet me couple of times this session and I folded all
My range here is something like AQs-AJs,KQs,98s,87s,AQo,KQo

Since he cbets a lot, he might cbet TT-KK, K7, K6 so shoving river is also an option
As played, AK and AQ are both blocked and unlikely, so Im looking at something like AJ, AT, A7
and whole lot of potential bluffs which Im not sure would take this line.

Your thoughts?

TY


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Preflop: Hmm his 4b size is a little large. I think the EV of jam vs call is going to be very close here. EV of calling at 18bb or less is probably higher than jamming, at least based on my own sims for this situation.

Flop: On the Flop this is a VERY CLEAR FOLD. I cannot stress how bad calling here is.

1. His 4b range contains a ton of AX
2. Your equity is bad vs his range
3. His cbet size is so huge for 4b pots

His likely calling range vs the 3B
88-66, AJs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo, KQo

His likely 4B range vs the 3B
Value: 99+/AQ+
Bluff: A9s-A6s, K9s, ATo-A8o, KJo-KTo, QJo


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Board: Ah6d5s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 71.54% 71.04% 0.51% { 99+, AQs+, A9s-A6s, K9s, AQo+, ATo-A8o, KJo-KTo, QJo }
MP3 28.46% 27.95% 0.51% { KhQc }

You are completely crushed on this flop. If you had 40%+ equity, calling wouldn't be all that bad. But definitely not on this flop. You are getting 25% pot odds, and your equity is barely above that.


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