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QKo, 4b

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ivancro
Joined: 12.02.2008

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

SB: $247.15 (247.2 bb)
BB: $34.45 (34.5 bb)
Hero (UTG): $100 (100 bb)
MP: $154.10 (154.1 bb)
CO: $103.70 (103.7 bb)
BTN: $338.70 (338.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K Q
Hero raises to $2.50, 2 folds, BTN raises to $8, 2 folds, Hero raises to $19, BTN calls $11

Flop: ($39.50) 6 J 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14

Turn: ($67.50) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($67.50) K (2 players)
Hero ?

23/18
3b BUvsUT 10%
AGG% 35-32-29
WWSF 41%
WTSD 19%
FCB in 3b: 55-67(3)-0(1)
Note: 3b SB vs CO w 88, called cold 4b

He gets to the turn maybe with: QQ, TT-88, JJ, AhKx, AhQx, AJs, QJs, JTs, Th9h, Ah5h where he might bet QQ, AJ, and T9
OTR if I shove he folds JTs, 88-TT, AhQx so I have to check-fold since I dont see hands he would bluff with
Agree with all this?


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hey there,

If villain's 3b% is really 10% in this spot, I think KQo could be a call given his 3b size. But I highly suspect your sample isn't too large so 4b is probably the best option here.

I tried coming up with some sort of estimate for the range he is arriving on the River with. I discounted a bunch of hands
AK - would sometimes jam PF
QQ - same
AQ - I think he rarely calls that on the flop

It's also hard to estimate whether he's 3betting a wide value range and flatting a ton of 4bets with TT/JJ but I gave him all combos of those anyway

Board: Jh4h6c6sKh
Equity Win Tie
MP2 62.96% 59.26% 3.70% { KcQh }
MP3 37.04% 33.33% 3.70% { JJ-TT, QdQc, QsQc, AJs, KJs+, JTs, AhTh, Ah9h, AdKs, AdKc, AhKs, AhKc, AhQs, AhQc }

We end up with a pretty small equity edge which could probably range anywhere between 60-70%. This is way too little to bet the River, so check-fold if he is straightforward, and c/c if you think he turns some weaker pairs into bluffs.


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