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NL50 KQ vs fish

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PKR $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2541332
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $50.75 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 21, 3B: 4, AF: 2,4, Hands: 624
Hero (UTG): $70.95 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 21, 3B: 7, AF: 3,1, Hands: 66443
MP: $89.09 - VPIP: 36, PFR: 17, 3B: 4, AF: 1,1, Hands: 333
CO: $53.11 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 3,3, Hands: 3004
BTN: $50.00 - VPIP: 37, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 3,0, Hands: 19
SB: $35.28 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 21, 3B: 10, AF: 3,6, Hands: 2008

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with K :spade: Q :club:
Hero raises to $1.50, MP calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1

Flop: ($7.75) K :club: 3 :heart: 6 :spade: (5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4.00, MP calls $4, CO folds, BTN folds, BB folds

Turn: ($15.75) 4 :spade: (2 players)
Hero bets $10.50, MP calls $10.50

River: ($36.75) 9 :heart: (2 players)
Hero bets $15.00, MP raises to $73.09, Hero folds

Hi, Villain was a fish...i had a note on him that he is a calling station.
what do you think about my line? is it a bit thin to bet the river?


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

This is what his River calling range might look like. Note that it's pretty close to 50%, which means that this would be a pretty thin value bet. You would need close to 55% equity to be pretty confident in being able to bet for value. Here, we could easily be value cutting ourselves, especially if I tweak my assumptions about his river calling range a little.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: Kc3h6s4s9h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 52.94% 48.53% 4.41% { KsQc }
MP3 47.06% 42.65% 4.41% { JJ, 44-33, AKs, K2s+, 75s, 65s, AKo, K9o+ }

What's my conclusion?
Bet even smaller, or maybe even check. I think a 1/3 pot size bet should be the best in this situation.


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