A3s NL50 ZOOM FR

Hi tywin

Preflop: given UTG+2 is most likely fishy I wouldn't look to isolate him this light.

Postflop: given that two fishy guys are in the pot already and can have draws themselves (which you dominate) I think that going with the hand here is fine.
It sucks that BTN is still in but overall we should still be fine.

Flop: (38.5 BB, 4 players) 7Heart 2Diamond JHeart
BB bets 43.76 BB and is all-in, UTG+2 calls 43.76 BB, Hero

P= 38.5+43.76+43.76
Pot Odds = (38.5+43.76+43.76) to 43.76
Pot Odds = 126.02 to 43.76
Pot Odds = 2.8797989031078610603290676416819 to 1

Break-even percentage = 100 divided by (pot odds added together)
Break-even percentage = 100/(2.8797989031078610603290676416819 + 1)
Break-even percentage = ~25.77%

From a pure pot odds perspective, a flush draw with 2 cards to come has an equity of 35.0%. Hence a call on flop is profitable in itself. Against set you still have 26.465% therefore you should call also.

Re shove I am not sure if you are ahead vs 2 on flop hence to play safe I would just call.

Originally posted by Superbrain
From a pure pot odds perspective, a flush draw with 2 cards to come has an equity of 35.0%. Hence a call on flop is profitable in itself. Against set you still have 26.465% therefore you should call also.

Re shove I am not sure if you are ahead vs 2 on flop hence to play safe I would just call.

when you just call flop, you only guarantee seeing 1 card though. (there can be bets on the turn)

i like hero's play.

- we have at least decent equity against almost any hands they show up with (actually at least flipping against anything less than AJ)
- btn "good reg" can fold better hands like QQ+ (because the best case scenario for him is for us to have exactly what we have)
- utg+2 can call worse hands (draws)

that's pretty amazing.

I forgot to mention stack size. Pot was 126.02 and hero had 147. If hero calls 43.76, he will be pot committed on turn and not folding regardless. So on that basis all in is the play on flop.

Hey chaps.
This hand brings up something I've been thinking over recently. I've read advice from several sources that we can only shove over a bet if we think villain will fold or if we have >50% equity vs. their range.
In this example, we get approx. 25% pot odds to call. We only have 8 clean flush outs vs. a set which is 16% so we have to rely on implieds to make the call. If we raise AI however, our equity doubles as we get to see both turn and river. So we are putting 95 into the pot of 273 which gives 35%. I think we have close to zero FE vs. UTG and obv zero FE vs. BB. If we give them exclusively sets then we are still behind but with any extra holdings then we get the necessary equity, without relying on implied odds.
Basically what I'm saying is by shoving draws AI on the flop we guarantee to realise our equity. So we can have a situation where we know villain won't fold and we know we have, say 45% equity vs. villain but shoving is the most +ev option.
Am I right with this or have I missed something glaring?