I played this hand last session vs a mega fish (85/23 over 150 hands) and I wanted to do some math work on it for practice. I'm trying to calculate how often I need to be right when I made this call against fish's range for this to be profitable in the long run. Do we use the 'break-even = risk / risk + reward' formula here? (I got 68% meaning that I would have to be right 68% of the time for it to be profitable, yes?)
Many thanks to anyone's input
Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
MP2: $6.34
Hero (CO): $4.86
BTN: $5.00
SB: $1.81
BB: $6.46
UTG: $2.27
UTG+1: $5.00
MP1: $5.31
Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with Th Tc
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 1 fold, SB calls $0.13, BB calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.45) 4s 5d 7s (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.32, SB raises to $1.66 all in, BB folds, Hero calls.
Turn: ($3.77) Kd (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($3.77) 8s (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $3.77
Hero shows Th Tc (a pair of Tens)
SB shows Kh 5s (two pair, Kings and Fives)
SB wins $3.61
(Rake: $0.16)