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Somewhat interesting ICM spot vs unknown because I suck at assigning ranges to randoms

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Anssi
Joined: 03.07.2008

Poker Stars $6.71+$0.29 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds + t4 - 5 players -

BB: t221 M = 2.76
UTG: t282 M = 3.52
CO: t1185 M = 14.81
Hero (BTN): t903 M = 11.29
SB: t409 M = 5.11

Pre Flop: (t80) Hero is BTN with ??

1 fold, CO raises to t120, Hero ???

Well, we can right away tell from his opening size that he likely is quite bad. Unfortunately I have total 6 hands on him, only stat being VPIP 66%. However, since he doubled, most people tighten up after that so actually giving him range here is somewhat tricky. Probably something like A8s+, ATo+, 77+, KQ. Even that range may be too loose on average.

There also lies a problem in stack sizes, clashing would be bad since winner of the pot would have ~2k+ chips at which point there is very real diminishing return on chips. (of course, the ICM tax isn't that high in 6 max since these are so top heavy). Of course, him being random he likely don't have understanding of ICM so he will call a shove too loose with some hands.

So, what shall we do here with:

AA (AA is probably only one I could see flatting here)
KK-JJ, AK
TT,99, 88
AQ
worse hands?

What do you think? Any comments will be helpful, I have very hard to putting ranges to players.

Mandatory "results"

Spoiler

Pre Flop: (t80) Hero is BTN with 9 :spade: 9 :heart:
1 fold, CO raises to t120, Hero raises to t899 all in


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2 replies
kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

Hi there!

Despite us being 5-handed, ICM tax is pretty high because of of the number of shorties there are. We are very risk averse against the other chipleader(who has us covered).

It goes like this-if we believe we don't have FE, we have to be pretty, pretty tight. I, however, do think we have some FE as we are a treat for his chealead and even a fish understands that. That, however, doesn't mean we should expect him to fold 88 or AJs. So at the end of the day-we still have to be tight.

If you put him on a range that tight, we should only play premium pairs. Some like JJ(maybe TT) plus. I will usually give him a wider range, but even so, it won't change our push range much, maybe AK but it will be very marginal.

So my answer is-fold big Ax, 22-99 and play only TT+


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

If villain opens 12.5%, 66+ A7s+ ATo+ KTs+ KQo QTs+ JTs and calls 5.9%, 88+ AJs+ AQo+ versus shove then hero shove range would be 3.0%, JJ+ AKs AKo. AKo being +0.17% and JJ +0.32%. TT would be -1.07%


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