PLO25 JT86 BvB

He definitely has something when he raises that turn. You have blockers to other big draws, so he propably has something like QJxx or even a set. The only thing that doesn't make sense is his small betsizing OTT. If he pots it would be to $11 so that is just a little over minraise. Might be an inducer, as that turn is a bad card for him to turn a hand into a bluff. And if he bluffs, he would be bigger.

When you just call the turn he knows you dont have QJ+. So if he was bluffing the turn he will fire the river. But as I don't think that turn raise is often a bluff, I would fold the river.

Did re-raising the turn cross your mind?

Thanx Kyyberi for the analysis

Did re-raising the turn cross your mind?

You mean reraise all in?
I would be commited if i reraise here.

Of course if you reraise the stacks go in. So what are your thoughts on shoving the turn?

Hero : 26.12% 26.07% 0.05% { JsTs8s6c }
Vilain: 73.88% 73.83% 0.05% { QQ**, QJ** }

Hero: 64.81% 64.66% 0.15% { JsTs8s6c }
Vilain: 35.19% 35.04% 0.15% { AKT*, AsKsT*, AsQ*s*, AsK*s*, AsT*s* }

I think, i have somethink like 0% fold equity if i shove here.
The board is too wet for a total bluff and it connects well with my open from the SB.

So i put him on QJ,QQ to raise me or good draw like broadway wrap, NFD + pair, NFD + gutshot.

Lets assume he has QJ or QQ like 66% of the time.
And he's on a draw 33% of the time.

I would have something like 26.12*2/3 + 64.81*1/3 = 39% equity
If i shove, i need (20,85$ shove / 48$ pot (2$ rake)) = 43.5% equity and i dont have it.

What do u think ?

Do you think he would almost minraise with QQxx?

That turn betsizing really confuses me a little bit. And to figure out what it might mean those normal stats are not enough. You have 1,4K hands with him so you have a lot more information in your hud, notes and head. I think that question above is pretty important when you try to decide what's the best option.

So you think he's more likely in a draw?

If now, i put him on QJ or QQ like 33% of the time.
And a draw 66% of the time.

My equity is now ....
26.12*1/3 + 64.81*2/3 = 52% equity
and shoving would be clearly EV+

Anyway, you are right, i have to check on my database what his minraise turn means

Hi,

his turn raise usually singifies a very strong hand; imho it's never a bare draw, but more of a made hand + draw. That being said i think a jam i spewy, but we should still make a call here as we are getting a good price.

Regards,

Skod