Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $14.04 (140.4 bb)
BB: $15.37 (153.7 bb)
Hero (UTG): $11.83 (118.3 bb)
MP: $10.46 (104.6 bb)
CO: $45.22 (452.2 bb)
BTN: $11.50 (115 bb)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with J
A
Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN raises to $0.90, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.60
Flop: ($1.95) J
T 9
(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.14, Hero calls $1.14
Turn: ($4.23) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.42, Hero calls $2.42
River: ($9.07) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $4.17, Hero raises to $7.37 and is all-in
Villain 26/25, AF: 11.0 over 70 hands. 3bet: 20.8 (24h sample)
First of all, maybe the sample is too small to determine his aggressiveness?
Keeping in mind, he's very likely to 3bet, how I should change my opening range from UTG when everyone else on the table is kinda tight? I thought I should get rid of A2s-A9s, QJs (and lower SC), how about low pocket pairs, f.e. 22-66? However AJo seems to be reasonable hand to bet/call and play passive postflop, let him bluff if I'll catch. Am I right?
EDIT: If I think that I'm getting 3-bet here often, maybe it's good spot to reduce the betting size to something like 2.5x?
The flop is kinda good to me, I hit TPTK and only losing to two-pairs, sets and KQ. Maybe 87 too, while his range contains lots of weaker jacks, tens, even nines, semi-bluffs with Q or complete bluffs like Axs.
I think his cbet range here is pretty wide, but contains something like this:
22+, A2s+, A8o+, K8s+, KJo+, QT+, 65s+
That's 23% of hands, so maybe he's just calling his weaker pocket pairs, maybe not so much Aces are in his 3bet range pre, also I don't have lots of hands on him, but we can take this hand more in theoretically aspect, not just this particular spot, because I'm pretty much confused vs very aggressive players, esp when I have to play OOP, so I basically try to avoid these spots.
So, I think that fold OTF is out of question. And I was more likely to stick to my plan and play passive, let him bluff. Is it right?
Turn is a jackpot, it greatly reduces the chance of him having full-house with JT or J9, the only hands that still beats us is TT, 99, KQ and maybe 87 and we also have some equity against them. On the other hand, his range still contains lots of hands that would fold to my aggression, so I still thought that my plan to play passive is good here. Esp when OTR he would have slighly less then a pot and maybe he will shove to my weakness of checking three streets even with air, keeping in mind his AF is super huge.
River is not the greatest card, because it could change his plans to shove with air when I'll check to him and also he could have flush himself, but ofc it's way better then K or 8.
So I'm sticking to my plan, and he's betting slightly less then half pot, instead of shove. How I can use this information? I think that I'm even stronger now, maybe he's trying to bluff cheaper, but that's unlikely I guess, but I also don't think that flushes or full houses could bet like this, instead of a shove. So it seems like an overpair or worse jack to me and I'll lose value against them, if I'm not putting him all-in here. Is it right? Or just call here is better? Maybe we can even find a fold somehow?
So that's my thoughts about this spot. I hope someone will have the time to read and analyze it. Thanks in advance.
