Calling Maths

Hello,

Again, as one in the previous hands - raise bigger preflop.

Flop bet should be bigger as well - like 18 cents.

Turn bet is again quite small - overall you should almost never bet less than 1/2 pot.
I would bet $0.4 here.

As played, it's an easy call given the fact that he can easily raise Kx hands for value against our small bet.

In vacuum, you could just count your outs - so it's 9 spades out of 46 cards left => 9/46 = 0.195 => 19.5%.

Best,
Plamen

Thank you for your reply and advise.

What would be your standard preflop raise with this hand? 3, 3,5bb?

Once we count out the maths 9/46 = 0.195 => 19.5%, what do we do with this number we have? What percentage is good enough to call and what would be to little?

Thank you,
599ALG

I usually make it 3bb from this position, but wouldn't mind making it 3.5 or even 4bb.

This number is your equity - so now you have to count your pot odds.

You need to call 30 cents for a pot of 154 cents, so you need at least 19.48% equity to justify a call.

Thank you for your advise.

Now we have:
19,5% our equity.
19,48% pot odds.

Do we need to count implied odds as well?

In this case (for my level of knowledge) we should count the implied odds in the following way:

We need to call $0.30 on the turn and we have 9 outs.

The short formula would be 0.30 x 1,5 = 0.45

As I understand $0.45 is the number we need to win to break even in the long term. If we bet $0.46 on the river and he calls we are having 0.01$ +.

In our hand the opponent has $0,45 in his stack, so implied odds allows us to call as well.

Is this what I wrote is correct or did I mix everything up?

Thank you,
599ALG

yes, plus maybe even K or A is your out, he might have some 2pairs , but also some of your spades doesnt have to be yourr out, but still its OK to call there as u getting 20% odds from pot and u have 20% equity of hand + implied odds can make this even more profitable, that means if u can get additional $$ from villain if u hit your outs

What is 1.5 in your calculation here?

Overall, we do not need to count the implied odds in this situation as we clearly have a +EV call right on the turn, so calling is the right thing to do even without implied odds.

Thank you for your replies.

Regardind 1.5:

As we know the original full way of counting implied odds is super long.

There is a shorter version for approximate counting which is around 95-98% accurate and it take just a few seconds.

So in this case when we have 9 outs we need to multiply what we need to bet times 1,5 and we will get around 95-98% or even more accurate answer for what we need to collect on a river as a minimum for this call to be a break even in the long term.

In our case:

0.30 x 1,5 = 0.45. That means the minimum we need to collect to break even is 0.45$ and everything more than that is our profit.

Regarding:
'Overall, we do not need to count the implied odds in this situation as we clearly have a +EV call right on the turn'

So, can I check if:

19,5% our equity.
19,48% pot odds.

19,50-19,48 = 0.02% is a really a clearly +EV call? Do we only need that little to consider the call decision +EV?

Thank you,
599ALG

Well in order to determine whether or not a call is +EV or not we just need to compare our equity and the needed equity to make a call.

In this case, our equity is a little bit higher (even when we only consider our flush outs) so yes, calling is fine.

Thank you for your advise.