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NL25 FR Zoom flopped set on 4 straight board

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To bet or not to bet the river? I could be up against a straight(rarely since he 3bets 2%) or a higher set, but I crush AA/KK.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 13.71, PFR: 9.68, 3Bet Preflop: 2.41, Hands: 251)
SB: 143.04 BB (VPIP: 8.17, PFR: 5.36, 3Bet Preflop: 2.40, Hands: 718)
BB: 52.24 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
UTG: 104.08 BB (VPIP: 22.58, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 32)
UTG+1: 135.8 BB (VPIP: 21.21, PFR: 12.12, 3Bet Preflop: 7.27, Hands: 301)
Hero (MP): 100 BB
MP+1: 60.92 BB (VPIP: 12.20, PFR: 7.32, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 42)
MP+2: 95.48 BB (VPIP: 9.43, PFR: 6.32, 3Bet Preflop: 2.86, Hands: 1,005)
CO: 124.2 BB (VPIP: 12.18, PFR: 10.23, 3Bet Preflop: 2.75, Hands: 621)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♣ 9♥

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 6 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB

Flop: (13 BB, 2 players) 8♠ 9♦ J♠
SB bets 6.2 BB, Hero raises to 18 BB, SB calls 11.8 BB

Turn: (49 BB, 2 players) 4♣
SB checks, Hero bets 24.4 BB, SB calls 24.4 BB

River: (97.8 BB, 2 players) Q♦
SB checks, Hero checks

Spoiler

SB shows K♣ K♦ (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 81%, Flop 11%, Turn 5%)
Hero shows 9♣ 9♥ (Three of a Kind, Nines) (Pre 19%, Flop 89%, Turn 95%)
Hero wins 93.4 BB


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3 replies
Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey SharkeeOne,

Preflop call vs 3b is fine given sizing.

We basically flop the nuts on draw texture and should raise immediately looking to stack off.

Turn is fine.

River it's possible just bet really small and hope to extract value from 2pairs. One thing going for us is that villain will lead river with Tx some of the time.


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But at 2.40% 3bet over 700 hands, I doubt he has any 2 pairs here. I'd put him on at least TT-AA, AK pre-flop and TT-AA, AsKs after calling the flop.


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Originally posted by SharkeeOne
But at 2.40% 3bet over 700 hands, I doubt he has any 2 pairs here. I'd put him on at least TT-AA, AK pre-flop and TT-AA, AsKs after calling the flop.

If we assume he leads TT on river and 3bets the flop with JJ, the could still potentially call with KK/AA/QQ on river and we'd have profitable value bet. (We lose to QQ obviously).

If you think he just checks TT on the river and can also still have JJ in his range then just check back river.


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