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NL50 AQ river call

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BotiaKiraly
Joined: 18.03.2009

Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2570333
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $41.85 - VPIP: 7, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 15
SB: $53.26 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 7, AF: 2.4, Hands: 14115
BB: $53.74 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 5.0, Hands: 217
UTG: $54.25 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 16, 3B: 3, AF: 4.5, Hands: 99
Hero (MP): $52.01 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 7, AF: 2.2, Hands: 122079
CO: $50.35 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 82

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with Q :spade: A :club:
UTG raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 4 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 9 :heart: 7 :spade: Q :diamond: (2 players)
UTG bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.75) 4 :heart: (2 players)
UTG bets $6.00, Hero calls $6

River: ($20.75) K :spade: (2 players)
UTG bets $13.50, Hero calls $13.50

Hello,

Villain is unknown, but after his 88 hands he has a big aggr% in every street, Is this an ok spot to think about GTO defending range?

cause I think I get to river with JJ-99,77,AQs,KQs,QJs,AQo,KQo,QJo this range, and I should call with ~60% of that range vs his 2/3 bet, if we eliminate TT,JJ and JQ-s then it's about 60%

Am I getting this right?


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Hi,

Game theory point I think call is reasonable, but the more I think about the hand and ranges, I would likely fold. I would take it this way- K is only card on the deck where I can fold and don´t really feel too bad about my decision.
His valuebet range is very often AK+ and bet size feels a lot like valuebet.
Since JTs and KQ got there I don´t think he is valuebetting AQ and I doubt he has too many pure bluffs in his range besides some turned flushdraws.
Since pot is not that big and we´re against usually strong ranges, which should not barrel randomly on the turn I would fold and feel quite fine doing that. Another 90% I would call him down with AQ and be likely good enough to make there profitable calldown. So unless you expect him to turn his TT/JJ into bluff I think folding river should be good line. Against his river bet size I´m usually behind more often than 28%

best regards,


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