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AT turns 2 pair

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randombob
Joined: 18.05.2014

BU 19/12 3bet 0% - 63 hands
BB 49/27 3bet 0% - 63 hands

Looking back I think this is a little too nitty fold, its only KJ, AQ & sets I'm worried about, there are lots of draws and maybe he had a combo draw or AK AJ, but it was the dreaded min raise and that usually means they have it so I was thinking KJ. I think if he had a draw he shoves??
If I assume the worst and give him this range - AA,QQ,55,AhKh,AhQh,AhJh,KdJd,KhJh,AQo,KJo then I am at 11%, but that range is probably too narrow
If I go to the other extreme and include all draws - AA,QQ,TT,55,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+ then I am 57%
I also didnt like it when the BB called as he was very loose so I decided to fold instead of calling in case the BB shoved but then

Poker Stars, $13.70 Buy-in (75/150 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): 3,697 (24.6 bb)
BB: 3,917 (26.1 bb)
CO: 3,208 (21.4 bb)
BTN: 2,678 (17.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T A
CO folds, BTN raises to 300, Hero calls 225, BB calls 150

Flop: (900) Q A 5 (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, BTN checks

Turn: (900) T (3 players)
Hero bets 675, BB calls 675, BTN raises to 1,350, 2 folds

Results:

Spoiler

2,925 pot
Final Board: Q A 5 T
Hero mucked T A and lost (-975 net)
BB mucked and lost (-975 net)
BTN mucked and won 2,925 (1,950 net)


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kurrkabin
Joined: 12.10.2010

Can't you profitably shove preflop? I would prefer this line as opposed to flatting pre with this stack sizes a hand as strong as AT, especially from the SB. I am really not a big fan of it.

Postflop-it looks really, really nitty and I can't understand why is this guy min-raising IP with a bluff, it just makes no sense. QT is a hand that comes to my mind, but I expect him to ship that. T5 is also possible if he has it in his range. On the other hand, if he has better hands than ours, isn't he worried about the 2 FD and other draws(gutters, J9). His sizing makes no sense and it's just an alarm he prolly doesn't know what he's doing imo. If it's on the bubble, I guess I am gonna play the hand just like you, but I am not 100% sure it's right. It's just because it's the bubble and I can never put him on a bluff once he decides not to cbet the flop and min raises the turn with 1 bettor and another caller. And I think QT is what we are hoping for and yet-most of the times he will ship that. I think flatting is also a possibility. Sometimes he checks back riv, sometimes we hit a full boat, sometimes he bets small and we call...can go many ways. I would really hate folding here.

Once again though- I am not a big fan of flatting ATo OOP from the SB at all.


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