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AA vs small donk on river from reg

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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

partypoker - $1 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 91.72 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
SB: 35.46 BB (VPIP: 46.67, PFR: 6.19, 3Bet Preflop: 4.55, Hands: 214)
BB: 51.66 BB (VPIP: 26.96, PFR: 22.61, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 119)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.29, PFR: 16.44, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 76)
Hero (MP): 223.76 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 28.01, PFR: 18.68, 3Bet Preflop: 8.56, Hands: 846)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♥ A♠

UTG raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) Q♦ 5♥ 9♣
SB checks, UTG bets 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB, fold

Turn: (22 BB, 2 players) 9♦
UTG checks, Hero bets 14 BB, UTG calls 14 BB

River: (50 BB, 2 players) T♦
UTG bets 14 BB, Hero raises to 29.83 BB, UTG calls 15.83 BB

Spoiler

Hero shows A♥ A♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Nines) (Pre 82%, Flop 90%, Turn 95%)
UTG mucks K♦ K♥ (Two Pair, Kings and Nines) (Pre 18%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins 106.66 BB

is it ok to call AA MP vs UTG especially when there are fish behind, and Reg is unknown which means he will give me a lot of credit for 3bet?

River I raise because I think I have the best hand almost allways, he shouldnt have flushes in range, also strong hands are likely not playing this way. Also is size ok? I think he was planning to bet/fold, so I gave him very good pot odds.


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7 replies
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w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey GingerKid,

Preflop defend is fine. Definitely fine to flat some combos of AA/KK in this spot. Most of the time I will 3b though even if fish behind.

Flop call is fine.

Turn bet for value is good.

River play looks strange. So what exactly do you think his range is? And which hands are calling?


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

On turn imo it makes no sense to play cc with strong hand same for river.

He could play this way QQ which wants me to raise with 9x. I would fold vs shove.
Most sense make KQ, AQ, KK+ which realized that river is ugly and didnt want to let me check worse hands and bet better.


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Originally posted by GingerKid
On turn imo it makes no sense to play cc with strong hand same for river.

Why not? Doesn't barreling range look pretty strong on paired turn?

I see where you are going though, if has only worse hands in his range then why not value-raise. So he never has any flushes that check because of the paired turn? Never any 9x or other traps?


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

Makes no sense to play it that way because my perceived range has very few or no 9x, and has mostly Qx which will often either bet small for protection or check. Same goes for river, makes even less sense.
I am not saying he never slowplays but i expect on river to have 95% best hand


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Originally posted by GingerKid
I am not saying he never slowplays but i expect on river to have 95% best hand

The other thing that worries me is....even if we have best hand 95%, if he doesn't call with worse frequently enough it can be a losing raise.


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GingerKid
Joined: 05.08.2007

Originally posted by w34z3l

Originally posted by GingerKid
I am not saying he never slowplays but i expect on river to have 95% best hand

The other thing that worries me is....even if we have best hand 95%, if he doesn't call with worse frequently enough it can be a losing raise.

I guess you can say it for every hand which has less than 100% equity.
I gave him super odds, and if i see him folding in such spot few times, i can start min raise bluffing which would be horroble for him. Sure such spot occures rarely.


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Coach
w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

yeah ok. Either way it's still a super thin raise imo. Even if it's ok hard to see it being super profitable in long term.


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