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KQ on turn NL10ante

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DREAMC4T
Joined: 13.10.2009

Doing a bankroll challenge, usually playing NL100-200 5max, but this is a spot where I'd love to hear peoples train of thoughts.

I'm playing TAG, might be perceived as LAG as I 3bet alot on the button and x/r flop abit more than the 'standard' TAG (15%).

Opponent is playing 20/16 over 900 hands. 3bet of 5.5 and xr flop 21. Small sample size but this is what we have to go with.

I decide to check back as there should be alot of stuff that's hitting hit that he might xr with. QT, T9, A8s, AJ, T8s, 89s. This is if he is raising all of his value range, presumably he has some bluffs as well and calling some of his jacks etc, rather. I dont think I'll get him to fold a pocket pair unless I barrel, which I guess I should do if he calls as -according to his xr stat- he never has a premium holding by the river. On the turn when he bets I guess I have 3 choices - what are your thoughts?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10, $0.02 ante No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

SB: $26.10 (261 bb)
BB: $49.45 (494.5 bb)
Hero (UTG): $14.59 (145.9 bb)
MP: $24.75 (247.5 bb)
CO: $4.37 (43.7 bb)
BTN: $34.22 (342.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q♣ K♦
Hero raises to $0.30, 4 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.77) 8♠ J♥ 8♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.77) 9♦ (2 players)
BB bets $0.50, Hero ?


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mikah77
Joined: 17.12.2007

Interesting hand. I think I'd CB the flop but there I'd use the fold to cbet stat (which is not posted here) to help with the decision. With decent fold to cbet there would be fold equity and when he does not fold at least we have more information to go with.

As played, I'd find anything but folding vs his turn bet very difficult as whatever the villain has he is usually ahead and in this spot may very well believe so himself. We could make him fold some of his hands vs re-raise but I'm not sure he'll fold often enough for that to be profitable. Calling is tricky also. If we get for example the the K on the river there is still a good chance the villain has a hand like QT, AK or a pocket pair (99) the has hit the set.


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