AT in SB vs MP open

I would bet again on the turn, we have equity v's the weaker part of his made hand range and are beating some of his hands that he can call again with, I don't think that him folding if he has a few outs when he is behind is a disaster here. If we stay in the lead we dont give him the chance to bluff us off the best hand.

There are also some better hands that might fold on the turn when you keep firing on this board after 3 betting pre flop

I just want to start by saying that I'm not an expert on the follwing kind of analysis, so the following might be wrong -- hopefully someone will correct me if it is.

It does depend a bit on what your pre-flop 3-betting range is, but, because of the K and J on board, A-highs are pretty low in our range, and so they could be used as bluffs.

For this analysis, I gave hero a range of: 55+,A9s+,KJs+,QJs, ATo+,KQo

If we're betting a pair of jacks or better for value, we have somewhere around 60-65 value combos. Our opponent is getting 6.5-to-1 on a call so we want to bluff with around 10 combos or so. (65:10 = 6.5:1)

So even if AT was the absolute worst hand in your range, betting all 16 combos of it would be over-bluffing, but since your hand has a good amount of equity (and your opponent's odds are actually worse than 6.5-to-1 since he has to deal with RIO) then bluffing with 16 combos is probably okay. Even if we have a number of worse hands we can bluff with (A 9 :heart:, QTs) in our range, the possibility of getting called by a drawing hand that is worse than our AT-high makes betting a good play, I think. I'm also pretty sure that by never bluffing AT, we would be under-bluffing, so it's probably better to bet all AT combos rather than none of them.

So I think AT is bet/fold, but AQ would be a x/c as our worst bluff-catcher.

I double barrel turn 100% here. that guy i think i know who you are thinking of (for the record hes not a good player at all. or even decent for the limit) the only decent for 5/Tc is hemul74 and me

if he raises turn i call if he calls turn i check fold if i dont hit. simple hand.

I would 3bet him with as low as A9o and A7s probably even lower now that i think about it.

Thank you guys, good points in all posts.

I agree now, betting is superior. I put reasonable ranges into Equilab, and it gave me 30% on the turn, so we are bluffing big time with A high and a draw, but this is okay here. The only drawback with betting is the risk of getting raised. My guess is that we get raised 30% of the time and we have to call. But this is compensated for. About 10% of the time he will have an small pair. If he now folds that it is a huge gain. But he can also have up to 15-20% drawing hands that worse than ours. He either folds these or pay for them.

As far as balance goes, Snakeman calculated ca 10 bluff combos. This number is a one-street number, so we can go higher. (Check out Boomers "Stacking bluffs" coaching series.) The important thing is to not triple barrel everything. From this perspective the problem is that AQ is basically the same hand. AQ + AT = 32 combos. This is clearly overbluffing.

I think betting AQ and AT 100% is fine as an exploitative move. A superb opponent might notice and accordingly never fold a pp and bluff-raise or float and bet every river when checked to, but that will be a problem at $30/60 or higher :).

@dutchirish: Good point about stopping bluffs.
@Avataren:If you go loser than A9, then you are entering dangerous territory. You'd be 3-betting 20%+, that is a lot OOP. (And you don't know the player ♦, I have only 344 hands on this guy.)

Finally, in position, this is a trivial check-back.

Originally posted by YohanN7
Thank you guys, good points in all posts.

I agree now, betting is superior. I put reasonable ranges into Equilab, and it gave me 30% on the turn, so we are bluffing big time with A high and a draw, but this is okay here. The only drawback with betting is the risk of getting raised. My guess is that we get raised 30% of the time and we have to call. But this is compensated for. About 10% of the time he will have an small pair. If he now folds that it is a huge gain. But he can also have up to 15-20% drawing hands that worse than ours. He either folds these or pay for them.

As far as balance goes, Snakeman calculated ca 10 bluff combos. This number is a one-street number, so we can go higher. (Check out Boomers "Stacking bluffs" coaching series.) The important thing is to not triple barrel everything. From this perspective the problem is that AQ is basically the same hand. AQ + AT = 32 combos. This is clearly overbluffing.

I think betting AQ and AT 100% is fine as an exploitative move. A superb opponent might notice and accordingly never fold a pp and bluff-raise or float and bet every river when checked to, but that will be a problem at $30/60 or higher :).

@dutchirish: Good point about stopping bluffs.
@Avataren:If you go loser than A9, then you are entering dangerous territory. You'd be 3-betting 20%+, that is a lot OOP. (And you don't know the player ♦, I have only 344 hands on this guy.)

Finally, in position, this is a trivial check-back.

and i have 1k+ hands vs almost every regular at that limit. some i have more than 5k hands on. and at 5/Tc I generally have a 3bet of 15 - 20% overall. I don't think its bad at these limits as these guys are too easy. thats why i love playing that limit. I haven't had a proper downswing for more than 250BB over the last 170k hands.. averaging the last 1½ - 2 years i have 3.5BB/100 winrate. So I do think my 3betting doesn't hurt my wr.. you should really just 3bet the hell out of these guys. you know how passive they are and how easy they are to get money from. why not 3bet and gain the advantage of initiative and you are obv able to fold if you think they got it this time (most cases they don't) Yesterday i played a little after 2½ week break. I valuebet a tight regular with bottom pair 3 streets. he was like "i had to call A high board and odds make no sense" or something bad was what he said in chat. even I could see that the odds was horrible in a limped pot 3way where fish limps BTN and folds to my flop bet. he calls down ♦

thats why i love 5/Tc even though i normally play 25/50c. its so relaxing and green days 25 days a month.

Hm, yeah, I know, I kind of beat the stake too, believe it or not. I think it is beatable for 12 to 15BB/100 (seriously) if you really put your mind to it and do not multitable. But 3-betting 15% on average is one thing and 3-betting 20%+ from SB vs tightish HJ is another thing. Three-betting A8o there is very LAG, 3-betting A7o is spewy. Worse would be maniacal.

It is okay though to have the very rock bottom of the range slightly losing because the rest of the range benefits from getting more actions.

Originally posted by YohanN7
Hm, yeah, I know, I kind of beat the stake too, believe it or not. I think it is beatable for 12 to 15BB/100 (seriously) if you really put your mind to it and do not multitable. But 3-betting 15% on average is one thing and 3-betting 20%+ from SB vs tightish HJ is another thing. Three-betting A8o there is very LAG, 3-betting A7o is spewy. Worse would be maniacal.

It is okay though to have the very rock bottom of the range slightly losing because the rest of the range benefits from getting more actions.

12 - 15 is very optimistic but for once i have to agree with you though not that high but a solid 5 - 8 is more realistic.

Originally posted by Avataren

Originally posted by YohanN7
Hm, yeah, I know, I kind of beat the stake too, believe it or not. I think it is beatable for 12 to 15BB/100 (seriously) if you really put your mind to it and do not multitable. But 3-betting 15% on average is one thing and 3-betting 20%+ from SB vs tightish HJ is another thing. Three-betting A8o there is very LAG, 3-betting A7o is spewy. Worse would be maniacal.

It is okay though to have the very rock bottom of the range slightly losing because the rest of the range benefits from getting more actions.

12 - 15 is very optimistic but for once i have to agree with you though not that high but a solid 5 - 8 is more realistic.

Didn't say I can do it. But if the best robots a few years ago were beatable by 13BB (Polaris was as it turned out), then a 5c/Tc player is beatable for that by a human. But yes, 5-8 is realistic. 3BB can be made in the sleep. I have for the gazillionth time just gone from a few $ to $100. (Graduating me (again) to Tc/20c ♦)
Edit: What I mean is that I can spot 5-6 mistakes every 100 hands in my own play a split second after I have clicked (the wrong button). There is room for huge improvement result-wise even without getting better at theory. Exploitation can also be sharpened. Some just don't bluff. Others are always weak when they raise flop (because they wait til turn with real hands), etc. 5-8BB is totally realistic. But, alas, no multitabling

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by Avataren

Originally posted by YohanN7
Hm, yeah, I know, I kind of beat the stake too, believe it or not. I think it is beatable for 12 to 15BB/100 (seriously) if you really put your mind to it and do not multitable. But 3-betting 15% on average is one thing and 3-betting 20%+ from SB vs tightish HJ is another thing. Three-betting A8o there is very LAG, 3-betting A7o is spewy. Worse would be maniacal.

It is okay though to have the very rock bottom of the range slightly losing because the rest of the range benefits from getting more actions.

12 - 15 is very optimistic but for once i have to agree with you though not that high but a solid 5 - 8 is more realistic.

Didn't say I can do it. But if the best robots a few years ago were beatable by 13BB (Polaris was as it turned out), then a 5c/Tc player is beatable for that by a human. But yes, 5-8 is realistic. 3BB can be made in the sleep. I have for the gazillionth time just gone from a few $ to $100. (Graduating me (again) to Tc/20c ♦)
Edit: What I mean is that I can spot 5-6 mistakes every 100 hands in my own play a split second after I have clicked (the wrong button). There is room for huge improvement result-wise even without getting better at theory. Exploitation can also be sharpened. Some just don't bluff. Others are always weak when they raise flop (because they wait til turn with real hands), etc. 5-8BB is totally realistic. But, alas, no multitabling

true.. how many tables are you playing and what winrate do you have atm at 5/Tc and or T/20c? don't bother playing T/20c i have an innate hate for that limit I even though im pretty much crushing it

I'll give you the numbers later today. Been up all night first losing 150BB at Tc/20c with the fish literally laughing at me. I ran so bad that the otherwise juicy 56/0 fishae started 3-betting me. Then I played some 5c/Tc to calm down.

I know exactly what you mean by 5c/Tc being relaxing. I find it soothing.

I play 2-3 tables, usually 2 + one FPP satellite tournament. (Two Sunday storm tickets yesterday for 35 FPP is a bargain :])

Edit:2.42 BB/100 over 90k hands for 5c/Tc. This includes two long downswings (due to bad tactics and play) and a 10k stretch of 10+ BB/100. Tc/20c will have to wait til I wake up.

I had a lot more hands before, but a database has crashed on me

Edit again:0.26 BB/100 over 70k hands for Tc/20c. Pathetic. This also includes a 10k stretch with +10 BB/100, but also a sick 17k stretch of -8BB/100. But sickest of all was tonight. It turned out it wasn't -150 BB, it was -225 BB. That destroys the stats for a whole year or more.

To illustrate my point about a rediculous win-rate being possible. Here is a hand I played today at 5c/Tc. (Still licking my wounds after yesterday X()
PokerStars - $0.05/$0.10 (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 31.3 BB
BB: 9 BB (VPIP: 43.06, PFR: 1.39, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 72)
CO: 15.6 BB (VPIP: 28.50, PFR: 19.32, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 208)
BTN: 5.7 BB (VPIP: 36.49, PFR: 1.37, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 74)

Hero posts SB 0.2 BB, BB posts BB 0.5 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 0.7 BB) Hero has Q♥ T♦

fold, BTN calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 1 BB, BB calls 0.5 BB, BTN calls 0.5 BB

Flop: (3 BB, 3 players) K♥ 4♠ 5♠
Hero bets 0.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 0.5 BB

Turn: (4 BB, 2 players) T♣

Now what? Bet (for thin value) or check? Normally I bet. I use the PT4 statistic "aggression factor" as a bluffometer. This guy has 0.74 after 74 hands, which is pretty low, he doesn't bluff. The thing is, I had notes on him:
14-10-14 FLHE: BWI OOP (A9 on KKTxy board)
14-10-20 FLHE: BWI IP
Here, BWI means Bluffs when induced. So I check.
Hero checks, BTN bets 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB

River: (6 BB, 2 players) 2♠
Hero checks, BTN bets 1 BB, Hero calls 1 BB

BTN shows 9♣ 7♠ (High Card, King) (Pre 35%, Flop 28%, Turn 0%)
Hero shows Q♥ T♦ (One Pair, Tens) (Pre 65%, Flop 72%, Turn 100%)
Hero wins 7.6 BB

This example is kind of extreme, but it is 2BB extra that is impossible to win when multitabling. Sure, you might have time to read notes, but you do not have time to think really well or take notes. There are easily 5 spots like these per 100 hands.

Edit:I am usually too lazy to put in this kind of effort unfortunately. I'm more likely to be browsing some forum or whatever than concentrating. But, lets say that one gets rid of known trivial mistakes, the ones where you regret pushing the button right away. This could be cured by imposing a mandatory 3-5 second delay before clicking. This has the added advantage that, even if you don't need those 3-5 seconds, your opponents will tilt slightly. Getting rid of the these more or less mechanical mistakes may mean 2 BB/100. Then throw in 3 BB coming from detailed notes and reads. Exploitation in short. Add that to 3BB/100 (which I'm at now). 3+2+3 = 8 BB/100. Absolutely possible.

that 5/Tc is pretty nice well done. the T/20c dont worry the first 40k hands of my endavours there ended in a -500BB downswing. don't feel bad It will turn around .. like last month i made $60 from T/20c over 5000 hands. crazy

I see your example .. honestly even though im doing 4 - 8 tables i always read my notes and do what they say maybe thats why i can get a 3BB/100 8 tabling.

Originally posted by Avataren
that 5/Tc is pretty nice well done. the T/20c dont worry the first 40k hands of my endavours there ended in a -500BB downswing. don't feel bad It will turn around .. like last month i made $60 from T/20c over 5000 hands. crazy

I see your example .. honestly even though im doing 4 - 8 tables i always read my notes and do what they say maybe thats why i can get a 3BB/100 8 tabling.

Tc/20c doesn't really worry me. I can tell the difference between plying bad and running bad. But this time I'll take care of BR and hopefully not be forced to withdraw.

Can you take notes too when 8-tabling?

Another thing is table selection...

$13 more in T$ for 7 FPP - lol. Those games are soft. I'm always keep one going on the side. Serious rakeback

Edit: Today I ran so well at 5c/Tc that the rate went up from 2.42 to 2.50 over 90k...

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by Avataren
that 5/Tc is pretty nice well done. the T/20c dont worry the first 40k hands of my endavours there ended in a -500BB downswing. don't feel bad It will turn around .. like last month i made $60 from T/20c over 5000 hands. crazy

I see your example .. honestly even though im doing 4 - 8 tables i always read my notes and do what they say maybe thats why i can get a 3BB/100 8 tabling.

Tc/20c doesn't really worry me. I can tell the difference between plying bad and running bad. But this time I'll take care of BR and hopefully not be forced to withdraw.

Can you take notes too when 8-tabling?

Another thing is table selection...

$13 more in T$ for 7 FPP - lol. Those games are soft. I'm always keep one going on the side. Serious rakeback

Edit: Today I ran so well at 5c/Tc that the rate went up from 2.42 to 2.50 over 90k...

Yeah i can take notes .. my notes aren't that in depth anyway short and clear "donks TP twice even if raised flop" or "limp/3bets AA" and then ill add hands over time if i see him doing it with KK i even got a note from a "reg" saying that he donks second pair checks turned trips to check raise.

I'm a very fast typer i don't need 2 hands to write sentences it only takes me like 3 seconds to write a note and then move on. besides the act time on Stars is pretty note friendly. i couldn't do 8 table and take notes on ipoker ex.

ps: keep in mind all the notes are hands where im involved. I am not taking notes if im not in the hand. that comes with 8 tabling. Although if i do have acted on all 8 tables i can add notes if i see one. Marking the players with colors i do pretty much on the fly. like if i see 1 guy Open limp ill always mark him a fish and if his s tats goes 22/1/3 ill mark him thereafter his specific color.. In all honesty ive seen players with 40 color codes like loose passive pre aggressive post etc. I don't think thats good. Keep like notes on the obvious player types and use the notes to determine how to play against that person

I got

Weak Player(fish)
Tight Passive
Loose Passive (these are like 33/1 but still not as fishy as a 70/0) VILJNIDIOT if you have seen him for example is a great example
TAG
LAG
Maniac
Really good player (for the limit or in general someone who you want to avoid or is a proven long term winner)
nit