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AJ overcards and J high FD on turn

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pcbeem
Joined: 16.07.2008

I am wondering if I can call this turn.

I do have overcards which makes 6 outs and J high FD but is this enoug to call or is the FD not worth anything?

Stats villian: VPIP 18 PFR 14 3-bet 8.9 AF 2.6 WTSD 45 and W$SD 50 in 1,1K hands

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Preflop: Hero is BB with J A
4 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Hero calls

Flop: (8.4 SB) 9 9 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls

Turn: (5.2 BB) T (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls

River: (7.2 BB) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

7.2 BB pot (0.3 BB rake)
Final Board: 9 9 3 T 7
Hero mucked J A and lost (-3.5 BB net)
CO mucked and won 6.9 BB (3.4 BB net)


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2 replies
YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

Actually, it is the flush draw that is worth something here. I wouldn't count the overcards as 6 outs. I'd say around 3 outs. [To find the exact number you can put his exact range in Equilab. Against every single value holding the overcards give less than 3 outs. Add bluffs.]

There is certainly less than 50% chance that he holds A :spade:K :spade: or Q :spade:. This gives you more than 4 outs to add since there are 9 :spade: left in the deck.

Give or take a little because you may be drawing dead versus TT, but yes, the flush draw makes all the difference. Super-easy call even if we had been optimistic with 3 + 4 = 7 outs when getting 8:1. :)


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firsttsunami
Joined: 23.01.2006

Well played! In FL in a capped Pot or lets say its really rare that you fold a flushdraw in a heads-up-situation. Even in a 3handed situation you should have called this Turn on your Outs but the more players are involved, the more careful you have to be with small to middle flushdraws like 8 9 T :spade: etc. The value of those flushdraws drops dramatically when the boardtexture doesnt provide many draws except flushdraws and you had a lot of action Preflop.

So lets say you are involved with 88 + :spade: in a 4way capped pot on A♠J♠9♠ and the preflopcapper Bets and another inbetween calls and you are ready to act on the button. On the Flop its certainly a call but if the Capper bets again and the guy in MP calls again, you should just fold the Turn since through the caller, your value goes down a lot and you are most likely drawing really thin to 3-4 Outs.

But in a heads-up situation the value of the flush increases since there is no multiple chance of being dominated so even with lets say A2 with :spade: you should call the Turn again. Its a pretty easy Call on the Turn and c/f the River. c/f with AQ probably as well but c/c AK.

Maybe you have some other hands where you are uncertain about whether to continue the fd or not. :)


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