BTN: 313.36 BB (VPIP: 42.31, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
Hero (SB): 122.33 BB
BB: 112.63 BB (VPIP: 21.62, PFR: 16.95, 3Bet Preflop: 8.94, Hands: 414)
UTG: 107.19 BB (VPIP: 23.18, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 7.57, Hands: 894)
MP: 259.55 BB (VPIP: 22.66, PFR: 13.98, 3Bet Preflop: 6.33, Hands: 754)
CO: 160.04 BB (VPIP: 28.07, PFR: 12.87, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 178)
Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♣ A♦ Q♦ 6♦
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold
Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) K♠ 9♦ 3♦
Hero ???
Villain seems slightly fishy over the 27 hands I have but no real reads. Could definitely 3bet preflop as well, any strong opinions on that? BB is a reg on the tighter side, not likely to go crazy in any way neither vs. a flat or a 3bet.
As played, I think I should lead vs. this villain since he's been very passive on the flop so far and will probably play pretty straightforward. However, I'm more interested in how to play this in general, both vs. unknowns and also how our reads on villain affect the line we want to take.
I think check/raising is a bit too thin in a single raised pot (not quite good enough to get in otf + visibility problems oop when called), so the decision is between leading and check/calling.
Leading guarantees we get a bet in with our good equity, could make villain fold some equity (though that weakish equity might put in money by cbetting if we check), and bloats the pot for the times we hit top set/nut flush. The negatives are that there are a decent amount of turns that are hard to play when we get called, and getting raised on the flop is a sucky spot as well.
Check/calling avoids facing a flop raise or a marginal turn spot, and makes our unimproved AA play better as a bluffcatcher/thin valuebet if flop checks through. Aggressive villains might also give us decent implied odds by trying to rep the flush if we hit. The downsides are that villain gets to realize equity/pot control more easily, and if no bets go in on the flop we make less on the times we improve.
So yeah, not really sure. I'm thinking that check/calling looks good against more aggro villains where getting raised/floated after a lead is a concern, and where we get more value from bluffcatching, whereas against guys that are more passive and unlikely to barrel or play back a ton we should probably lead. Thoughts? Which line would you go for vs. a 100% unknown if it was your first hand with him?
