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NL10 flopped top pair top kicker vs raise

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Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2599928
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $10.60
MP: $8.26
Hero (CO): $14.01
BTN: $10.00
SB: $10.88
BB: $10.76

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with A :heart: K :heart:
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90) 2 :spade: K :club: 3 :spade: (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB folds, BB raises to $1.90, Hero raises to $4.23, BB raises to $10.46 all in, Hero calls $6.23

Turn: ($21.82) T :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($21.82) 7 :club: (2 players - 1 is all in)

So my question is what the correct play is at the flop. Recently I´ve come in this situation where you get raised on a flop with suit draws available holding top or over pair. Equilab gives me 47.1% equity at the flop when I put him on the range
33-22,AsQs,KsQs,AsJs,KsJs,QsJs,AsTs,KsTs,QsTs,JsTs,As9s,Ts9s,As8s,9s8s,As7s,8s7s,As6s,7s6s,As5s,6s5s,As4s,5s4s,As3s,As2s.

I assume that he will raise flushdraws as often as pockets. Of course he would call some flushdraws but he would also call some sets. The opponent is more likely to be a reg than a fish.

So is this just a bad beat or can I fold on this flop? Is only calling on this flop an option?


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VorpalF2F
Joined: 02.09.2010

Yuck.
I hate spots like this.

Disclaimer: I am NOT a coach!;
I also haven't played NL10 for a while _cry:

I notice you left KK out of the range -- as unlikely as it is, it is possible.

In this particular hand you have ONLY TP -- no redraws except for two back-door straights, which would lose to a flush if you both get there.

If you think he is on a flush draw, why not call -- you can get away if the FD hits.

Stats? If he pulls this stunt often, yeah make him pay for the privilege, but maybe not such a big re-raise.

I'm really curious what others think, but I'm voting fold here vs an unknown, or normally passive player.

Best of luck,
VS


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mikah77
Joined: 17.12.2007

Versus on unkown I would probably fold this, otherwise I would play depending on his stats but I'd have to have pretty strong hint of him playing weak hands aggressively to re-raise like that.


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NothingIsForSho
Joined: 01.06.2014

I'm no expert at 10NL but I actually have flop c/r as a stat on my HUD (as recommended by some coaches) so you should be able in the future to get an idea from that.

Without that information though raising the flop seems not good, but I may be wrong.

Did you have any specific stat or timing reads at the time?


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NothingIsForSho
Joined: 01.06.2014

I mean from a theoretical point of view if you are your opponent you want some fold equity with that c/r draw, but you have to figure that your opponent (you) has a king a lot, so if you're sitting there with QJss you can't hit a Queen a Jack and be sure to have the best hand on the turn if your opponent continues. Also you would figure that the very types of hands that you're trying to get your opponent off of it the first place have a high likelihood of just checking the flop behind.

I'm just trying to think about the situation with no C/R stat. You could also consider other stats if you don't have c/r handy like Agg factor or pretty much any relevant stat.


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