NL5 T9s turn play

dont raise turn imo, no point doing that

Just some stats of the villain to help with decision making. these were available at the given moment.

Villain: 90 hands (3bet on button 17%, likes 3b from sb and bb ~15%)
26/22/8,6 vpip/pfr/3b
4b 16,7
f3b: 50
CB: 60
CBT: 100

Hi vandeuren

Preflop: given raise size looks fine

Postflop: Villain is showing strength for betting the turn. The question is: what better hands fold? I doubt JJ+ fold there vs you unless villain is really nitty.

If, for whatever reason, you think overpairs can fold than ck/raising is better than ck/calling.

I tought it was good shove. ( changed after doing the whole thing.)

Why?

If looking at villains stats I mean we only have 90 hands but it is better to base the decision on that than general assumption. He 3b 14% on BTN ok even if this is not real lets say its only 10% for real. What is hes range? 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo

So for the given range he cbets 60%, 88+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+. And 100% of this he second barrels. Against this range T9s with TP and OESD is 58,66% favourite. Yes he will never fold overpair, but he will fold many nasty hands including mostly 2overcards which saves from plenty of trouble. Basically if we get A high to fold here the 15% of his range that could beat us on R if Q+ comes folds at this point. So After this we have increased our winning odds against his range.

What if he calls second barrels only 75% of his range. 99+,AJs+,AKo. Hero would be still be 55% favourite.

4,5% of his range is left here and 1,8% of that range he has OP so he would still be folding here 60% of time which is great and from 40% that is left we are still winning 20,5% of time
We end up winning 4€ by doing this but we invest 5,7€ which is definately -ev. This is in the WORST case.

Best case:
He raises from btn 14% (assuming cbetT is 90% leads to 13,4% range) and fold everything else but JJ+,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs (3%)
so he is folding 77,5% of time. And when he calls with this range Hero still has 23,5% against this range.

Hero wins by doing this: 4,8€ (~ - 1€ play)

In both cases it is actually bad shove, why.. pot on T is just not big enough to make hero a profit.

It would be good line if Pot was on T atleast 3,8€ before shove then it would be break even point.

Best possible play, C T and hit R big if managed to get some blank or straight.

Next time note pot size before doing this! to determine between C and xR.