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180man final table resteal vs reg

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Wohmfg
Joined: 12.11.2009

** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ** (Poker Stars)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, November 20, 11:21:05 ET 2014
Table 1050444477 11 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Seat 2: Player2 ( 10865 ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 9, 3B: 7, AF: 1.0, Hands: 162
Seat 3: Player3 ( 74214 ) - VPIP: 37, PFR: 24, 3B: 8, AF: 1.0, Hands: 62
Seat 4: Player4 ( 65908 ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 2.8, Hands: 5176
Seat 5: Player5 ( 19945 ) - VPIP: 48, PFR: 5, 3B: 3, AF: 1.0, Hands: 169
Seat 7: Player7 ( 49018 ) - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 0.0, Hands: 195
Seat 8: Hero ( 50050 ) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 2.5, Hands: 600495
Player2 posts ante of [300].
Player3 posts ante of [300].
Player4 posts ante of [300].
Player5 posts ante of [300].
Player7 posts ante of [300].
Hero posts ante of [300].
Hero posts small blind [1500].
Player2 posts big blind [3000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 3s As ]
Player3 folds
Player4 raises [6000]
Player5 folds
Player7 folds
Hero folds
Player2 folds
Player4 wins 3000
Player4 wins 9300 from main pot

I'm going to go through the though process of this hand and I'd welcome any input.

Our resteal range is going to depend mainly on two factors, how wide the reg is opening and how ICM aware he is.

As BB is so short and I think this reg is quite good, I expect his open range here to be wide, something like 22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,A5o+,K9o+,Q9o+,JTo.

Therefore, our shove range can be wide because he is raising wide and should respect ICM somewhat. His calling range is probably something like 77+,AJs+,AQo+.

Our resteal shove range can be as wide as 22+,A2s+,K4s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,76s,A2o+,K7o+,QTo+,JTo against this open/call range, making us 6000 or 2bb in chips, probably enough to account for ICM tax when we are actually called.

So A3s is an easy shove if we are correct in our assumptions. Even if the reg is opening tighter like 22+,A5s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo, A3s should still just about be a shove after ICM. How accurate are my ranges tho?

According to ICM, the reg needs 70% equity to call our shove, meaning he needs QQ+. Are many regs taking that into consideration? If the reg calls my wide resteal with TT, it's actually a mistake. This is why I am hesitant to resteal sometimes, as I don't think players give ICM enough respect and it hurts both of us if he calls looser.

Thoughts?


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Tiltberger
Joined: 23.06.2005

Hey!

after icm:
against his 26% or range that you gave him you can jam:

7.8%, JJ+ 22 AQs+ A5s-A2s AKo A3o-A2o KJs+ K2s

if he is calling
3.4%, TT+ AKs AKo

in reality he is not folding 88, aq and ajs here...

that means we can shove:
ultra nitty 2,5%...

thats icm for you

a3s you is btw just 0.2% worth of the remaining pricepool... so in most cases you won't even win a $

If you know he is folding 99, 88 and aq shove is nice...

if he calls it you could just let go...

Greets,
Tiltberger


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