NL10 SH Zoom - 44 set

He doesn't have many sets, because he would most likelly raise them on the flop or turn, I think. But he might have something like a pair + gutshot and some gutshots came on the river. So, I think checking is fine and I don't expect him to bluff there nor value bet one-pair hands and sometimes even two-pair hands on that board. You wont get much calls from worse hands there neither, imo. Sometimes he might have something like JJ-QQ, which he didn't want to raise preflop to that sizeing, but not that often. So, if you bet, you probably wont get calls/raises from worse and if you check, he probably wont bet with worse, which leads us to check/fold as the best move there, I think. Maybe sometimes would be ok to make a small bet, something like 2-2,5$, and fold to a raise.

Hi AtrociousNightmare ,

Preflop: looks fine

Postflop: That's a really nitty river play by you if you are ck/folding... you have a station reg so doesn't he have all overpairs in his range? Are those folding the river? Of course not... So at least bet.

Originally posted by BogdanPS
Hi AtrociousNightmare ,

Preflop: looks fine

Postflop: That's a really nitty river play by you if you are ck/folding... you have a station reg so doesn't he have all overpairs in his range? Are those folding the river? Of course not... So at least bet.

What do you mean all overpairs?
Just JJ is there.
QQ+ raises preflop.

What type of reg is he?

As in what are his 3-bet stats?

I took your notes as saying he is passive overall but perhaps you meant just postflop?

In that case we have less value on the river as 66/77 both got there. I expect that better sets do raise some % of the time.

Originally posted by BogdanPS
What type of reg is he?

As in what are his 3-bet stats?

I took your notes as saying he is passive overall but perhaps you meant just postflop?

In that case we have less value on the river as 66/77 both got there. I expect that better sets do raise some % of the time.

Yes sorry postflop passive, but I don't have many hands anyway.
I didn't bet also because every 6x hits and a BU cold call vs CO that also calls me twice postflop doesn't really have much anything else than connectors and the like, or small pairs that will fold to a 3barrel IMO.
Still uncertain.

It's probably fair to assume that most combos of JJ are in his range and then we have 66/77/99/TT/89s/87s/A8s and maybe some rare A5/A4s... and the occasional overcard float.

Now on the turn, vs your double barrel, he most likely mucks at least some 66/77 hands, can call 99/TT/89/87/A8 and some floats that have diamonds.

So on the river he should have less 66/77 hands... 87 improves and the rest stay similar so he may call a 1/2 to 60% bet. But it is a bit more optimistic.