Hi,
This hand is gnawing at me a bit. We are on the bubble in a full size SNG. Hero has 5BB left after posting the BB in this hand. Villain does a minraise from the button. His VPIP is 20 with a range % of 17, but has loosened considerable and has raised the last 5 blinds. His current blind steal % is at 33% with a sample size of 300 hands, and he folds his button early game, so on the bubble his range will be +-40%.
The hand:
PokerStars Hand #126159421631: Tournament #1063995776, $1.29+$0.21 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2014/12/02 20:30:15 CET [2014/12/02 14:30:15 ET]
Table '1063995776 1' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: minoepoe (1291 in chips)
Seat 2: UTG (4679 in chips)
Seat 7: Button (4124 in chips)
Seat 8: SB (3406 in chips)
SB: posts small blind 100
minoepoe : posts big blind 200
HOLE CARDS
Dealt to minoepoe [6c 5c]
UTG: folds
Button: raises 200 to 400
SB: folds
minoepoe: ?
I shoved him here, thinking I have reasonable fold equity and I have to make a move at some point. Even if he calls (which he did), I'll likely have live cards with a 40% chance to win at showdown.
Looking back at the hand and the situation, I think I would've shoved again if I was put in the same spot, but I'm not sure it's correct as it doesn't cost him that much to call and potentially knock me out, even if he isn't getting the right price to call me.
