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NL10 zoom river sizing

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Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $14.48 (144.8 bb)
BB: $0.83 (8.3 bb)
UTG: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
MP: $13.82 (138.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $20.74 (207.4 bb)
BTN: $12.13 (121.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A 9
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds

Flop: ($0.70) 9 A 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.70) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.20, SB calls $1.20

River: ($4.10) Q (2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero raises to $18.74 and is all-in, SB folds

Results:

Spoiler

$8.10 pot ($0.36 rake)
Final Board: 9 A 2 8 Q
SB mucked and lost (-$4 net)
Hero mucked A 9 and won $7.74 ($3.74 net)

Villain unknown.
I am really not sure if I am extracting enough value here. He might have a weaker flush, so would it be more profitable to raise something like 4$-6$ or should I play the river like I did here?


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2 replies
Tomaloc
Joined: 17.01.2011

hi

a villain rarely is completely "unknown", even when you have 0 hands on him. you can still make shallow guesses based on username, avatar, country and, most importantly, number of tables played.
i like massively overbet shoving the river if the opponent seems fishy.

against any remotely reasonable reg, the problem is that it's not hard for him to talk himself into folding his entire range when faced with the decision of calling for over one stack.
- your range is exclusively the pure nuts here. pretty much no one turns the A:h blocker into a bluff here, and if you happen to be valueshoving K:h then he can correctly defend only with his A:h x:h.
- he doesn't have many worse flushes that could pay you off. you have A:h, not many people backdoor float K:h and worse, and 9:h x:h isn't too many combos.
- so his range should be mostly AQ and busted diamonds, more rarely backdoor flush with 9:h, sets and other twopairs. since your perceived range has a ton of backdoor flushes, it should be very easy for him to fold any non-flush against your sizing.

so, which sizing to use?
i would think about how much he is willing to pay with AQ as my reference point. he should definitely have a very tough time folding against a raise lower than $5, though i would probably make it closer to $6.


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Thanks for the thorough answer. :f_love:


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