NL100 vs fish d/x/overbet with TPTK

Do you snap raise as default because you analysed your database, and found out that fish fold after donking flop in average enough so that you can bluff raise?
I actually rarely see folds when I raise fish donk especially on drawy board.

Anyway I would rather call flop, if you think he bluffs enough, then bluff catch IP is imo better.
He also folds 67% vs cbet, and donks 33%, so it looks that he is not bluffing too much when donking. River, fish when overbet it is nearly always nuts, exception for maniacs, but this guy doesnt look as maniac

I think pure bluff-raising in these spots is probably bad since we don't get that many folds.

However I do bluff here with a slightly more merged range. Something like AKo might be a candidate because although we are not value-betting we can i) get called by worse hands ii) improve to a value-hand on turn or river.

I will filter my database for donking fishes. As for river I totally agree that's nuts but weaker players often misunderstand strength of their hands. And I thought that kx might in this range too. What's the bottom of your calling ranges here guys?

hey guys, dont you really see folds in these spots?
I see donk/folds all the time from fishies (unless they donk pot or something), like over 50% + with two overs we have 4 live outs and 2 good outs and we can see two cards most of the time. Also it can win at shd sometimes after checking it down.

Originally posted by sandraardnas
hey guys, dont you really see folds in these spots?
I see donk/folds all the time from fishies (unless they donk pot or something), like over 50% + with two overs we have 4 live outs and 2 good outs and we can see two cards most of the time. Also it can win at shd sometimes after checking it down.

I never filtered it, but I have a feeling that they dont fold much vs raise. I see even very often donking overcards and calling raise, then donking turn again small etc, you know how they play

Originally posted by Majku99
I will filter my database for donking fishes. As for river I totally agree that's nuts but weaker players often misunderstand strength of their hands. And I thought that kx might in this range too. What's the bottom of your calling ranges here guys?

When I see overbet from fish, it is usually not overplay, but really nuts. They likely thing, omg I have nuts I have to win big money.
Sure you will see some overplayed Kx but imo not often enough.

I think K7 would be very marginal call, at least it blocks good. Probably only hand that calls.

I filtered my database and FE was about 37% in 344 spots. Plus equity of our holding it's EV+-

Yeah it should be slightly +EV, rake should eat all the +EV.
So imo vs such FE, we dont even need to bluff raise at all, what ever hand is going to have +EV raise on flop (like AJ+, draws) is also going likely to have higher EV by calling.

Interesting, you had a feeling that fish folds a lot when donking, but it turns out to be very wrong.

This is why it's good to merge. We still take advantage of our fold equity but benefit from additional expectation we have when villain calls with worse. He also gets no free cards.