NL10 SH Zoom QJ BB vs BTN, Flop Check/Raising

Hi Alleen

His cbet size here could also be a tell as he is betting rather small for a wet board so I don't mind trying to bluff. However, your equity is pretty poor.

And as played what range do you think he has? Of course some Ax but what about draws? Which is more common?

Originally posted by BogdanPS
Hi Alleen

His cbet size here could also be a tell as he is betting rather small for a wet board so I don't mind trying to bluff. However, your equity is pretty poor.

And as played what range do you think he has? Of course some Ax but what about draws? Which is more common?

Thanks! It's more probable that it's a draw because he would protect Ax with larger sizing on the flop. Makes sense. The Turn completes TJ, but it's not that likelly that he has it. Besides TJ, there aren't straight draws on the Flop, only backdoors, so I believe he rather has a flushdraw or occasionally something like 2nd pair, maybe KK-TT, but the flushdraw makes the most sense. Should I bet/fold the turn then, and bet the blank river? I think that with river betting can take him off KK.

His flop cbet is 2/3pot so isn't that standard? If we don't have any info I wouldn't say he is most likely on a flush draw. We check raise flop so I would just continue selling him our story and bet turn and fold to a raise. Could we also play this hand -> call flop, donk/fold turn. Cause that's how I would have played this??

Originally posted by la55i
His flop cbet is 2/3pot so isn't that standard? If we don't have any info I wouldn't say he is most likely on a flush draw. We check raise flop so I would just continue selling him our story and bet turn and fold to a raise. Could we also play this hand -> call flop, donk/fold turn. Cause that's how I would have played this??

It is almost 2/3 of the pot, but the board is drawy, so if I was him and had, for example, AK, I would bet at least to 0,40, but probably something like 0,45. That might tells us that he doesn't have an ace, but wants to take the pot down with some weaker pairs or draws. Obviously, he doesn't need to think like me, so still have aces in his range. When he just called our raise, I believe he doesn't have the nuts, ie. sets, because he would protect them with 3betting. The strongest hand he has is probably Ax, so I think we can take him off with betting turn and river on blank cards. Hope the judge will say some more about the hand. Thanks for dropping by!

KK type hands can definitely fold the turn there if you bet. I don't think they'll stick around till the river.

The question is if we can get him off weaker Ax (not AK) but that's questionable at these limits.

But let's go back to the turn range. I think this would be a good excercise for you.

List out the hands you think he gets there with and the number of combos. What's more common?

Originally posted by BogdanPS
KK type hands can definitely fold the turn there if you bet. I don't think they'll stick around till the river.

The question is if we can get him off weaker Ax (not AK) but that's questionable at these limits.

But let's go back to the turn range. I think this would be a good excercise for you.

List out the hands you think he gets there with and the number of combos. What's more common?

Ok, firstly, his preflop range is probably something like:
(49,02%)

Against that range, my equity on the flop is 34,48%:

Board: A♠9♥8♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     65.52%  64.08%   1.44% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o }
BB     34.48%  33.04%   1.44% { QhJc }

Against his cbetting range, it's probably even weaker, so despite of 28% pot odds, I don't think it's profitable to call. Furthermore, the board is drawy and floating in this situation is out of question with just a gutshot, imo.

When calling my raise on the flop, I believe his range is:
(9,99%)

So, there are 42 combos of Ax hands, 54 combos of flushdraws/straightdraws and 12 combos KK-JJ. My equity on the turn is 37,79%.

Board: A♠9♥8♠ Q♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
BU     62.21%  60.27%   1.94% { KK-JJ, ATs+, QJs, JTs, T7s, 76s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsTs, Ks9s, Qs9s, Js9s, Ts9s, Ks8s, Qs8s, Js8s, Ts8s, Ks7s, Qs7s, Js7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, Ks6s, Qs6s, Js6s, Ts6s, 9s6s, 8s6s, Ks5s, Qs5s, Js5s, 8s5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, Ks4s, Qs4s, Js4s, 7s4s, 6s4s, 5s4s, Ks3s, Qs3s, Ks2s, Qs2s, ATo+, JTo }
BB     37.79%  35.85%   1.94% { QhJc }

Against his betting range, it's probably weaker, so I can't check/call with 29% of pot odds. If I bet, I guess he will still call the majority of his range, fold KK and JJ and raise QQ, obviously. On blank rivers, he would have 40 combos better than my QJ...

...and 51 combos that are worse than my QJ.

We are splitting if he has QsJs.

According to those assumtions, I could maybe even check/fold blank rivers because I don't expect him to bluff or value bet Ax and I will win the pot in 56% of cases. So, if we assume that he never bets the river (and that my turn bet size was the same like his was), my expected value on the river would be 3,61$. If I was him, I would fold TP to the river bet, so in that case, it would be more profitable to bet because I will win the pot every time. So, if we assume that he is folding to my river bet every time, my expected value on the river would be 6,45$ (before rake). Ofcourse, I can't assume those numbers are true with absolute certainty, but since he looks like a regular, I guess the option of betting would be much more profitable.

To, sumarize, I think betting the turn and betting blank rivers would be the best play in this hand.

Good work, you clearly put a lot of effort into this and I hope you were able to get something out of it.

Betting turn/river would generally not get a person at these limits to fold Ax unless you bet really big.