Yeah, his raise is very low, but its kind of unique situation where we never know his actual x/r % or range unless we see some shd.
Besides its still might be bluff heavy range, I have 4% x/r as pfr on 20k sample and it was only bluffs.
It is true that he could be bluff heavy with any raise stat %, and that we can hardly conclude his range. But that you can say also for raise vs cbet, and any stat ? With cr it is special that he cbets % of strong hands, and with raise vs cbet villian has all strong hands in range. But still we cant say for sure if e.g. 4% raise stat is bluff heavy or not, unless we see showdowns.
Since it is just weak assumption and we shouldnt make big adjustments using it, we can still use population read. You can filter your database for people who are regs (using VPIP and PFR) and filter low cr %, and see how often it is a bluff (using won %, or bluff frequency). Then you will see that low cr %, as well low raise vs cbet % on any street is in average very strong. And if this average over all regs gets very extreme value, e.g. it is 80% value, then you can say it is strong assumption and you can fold exploitatively, even if you dont have any read on this villian. If the value for average villian is not extreme, then you can just ignore it due to statistical errors.
As I analysed for my player pool, cr on all streets are value heavy no matter what preflop or postflo paction was, so I usually make exploitative folds unless I have a particular read.
But what I wanted to ask is how would you adapt when someone is very agro preflop against you and postflop he is still agro.
What do you mean by more agro? bluff heavy or simply not value heavy ? Anyway, I would bet flop for protection, and as played just fold turn even if he is bluff heavy or has unexploitable ratio, because his bluffs has nice equity and our hand has very low equity and bad playability.
And about betting on flop 30% pot. I think its quite good idea against this vill even with our whole range even on this wet flop, but what do you think guys when opponent is more decent and has like 40% x/f? If we bet 2/3 then it would be hard to actually get value, but if we bet 30% then we might get into trouble easily.
if villian is decent, then he will check some draws (some GS, fd, OESD), will check middle pairs weak Jx, some % of JJ, maybe AcA etc, maybe AK, AQ will cc flop.
If villian has solid ranges, and is xf around 40%, then it means that he will cbet this flop with low %, meaning that you can more often realize your equity, and be in a profitable spot once he checks.
Still if you bet 30% pot, he has to defend likely around 85-90%, because your bluffs have nice equity vs his weak cc range, and if he constructed his range to xf 40% flop, how is he going to manage to defend 85-90% range on flop? The hands that he x/f, are likely having very low equity (it makes sense to x/f lowest equity hands), so with non of them he can call +EV vs your bet range, even if you bet 30% pot, so it is nearly impossible that he can defend 85-90% range +EV.
And off course if villian has decent x/f frequency, then you dont bet whole range, but you bet Jx+ for value (at least 2 streets value with any Jx vs such range), and 9x, TT you can bet 2 streets 30% pot size and check river for value (or bet flop 30% pot, and check turn, call river, but I prefer bet turn check river). If villian attacks your capt range with raises, then you also bet 30% your strong hands (so all value hands since it is max EV in that case to bet sets 30% pot), and he cant anymore raise for value e.g. with JQ).
I bet 30% as default, and it works very well vs every reg. some of them start spewing, some of them traping, but still, nobody can defend +EV >80% range.
It is similar spot when you cbet flop in 3bet pot on Axx, Kxx board, you can cbet 30% pot, and for villian is almost impossible to defend enough of range +EV, and most of regs are confused and dont know what to do since it is not common. Just try to see how would you defend vs 30% pot cbet on Ks8c3c BB vs BU 3bet, and you are BU, so if you can manage to defend 80% range. You would have to call many Ax hands, but also float weak PP, Qx hands, which is not that bad if you are IP. But try other spot, you 3bet BB vs BU, and check flop, and face 30% pot size bet, how would you defend?
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