SH Zoom ATs Gutshot + Overcard Raising Flop in 3bet Pot

I think it is a very expensive move in 3B pot.
You want to fold out AQ-AK. What AK-AQ will c-bet/fold here?
QQ+ will be shoving on flop?

Originally posted by nitrol
I think it is a very expensive move in 3B pot.
You want to fold out AQ-AK. What AK-AQ will c-bet/fold here?

Not quite sure I understand what you mean. AK-AQ wont fold to a raise or wont cbet at all? His 3bet range is probably something like AQo+, AQs+, JJ+ for value and some bluffs, like 54s-T9s, A2s-A9s. Something like that. This flop missed most of his range. Generally, players on those limits have a tendency of cbetting too much in 3bet pots (referring to w34z3l's Walktrough series), so I expect him to have many bluffs there. Bluffing too much + missing the flop often leads to my move of trying to take the pot with raising because I think that I have alot of fold equity. I'm not doing that without any equity, though, since I have a gutshot and maybe A on later streets could be good. If he calls, I expect him to have some hands he is not villing to fold, like QQ+, but I expect him to fold those to the Turn shove, especially if another spade comes. So, I'm planning to shove most turns, if he check, ofcourse.

Originally posted by nitrol
QQ+ will be shoving on flop?

I said that I expect him to fold QQ+ on the turn to my shove, with the assumtion he calls those to my raise on the flop and checks the turn. With above assumtions, I'm not really care which part of his range is shoving the flop, because I'm semi-bluffing, which means that I wont call his shove. If he shoves, I don't expect him to bluff ever. Sometimes with QQ+ he will shove, sometimes call, but I'm folding to his shove anyway.

I have only one question: How did you decide that he will be so wide in his 3 bet range, when you have only 13 hands?

Originally posted by Alleen86
Hello!

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $5.09 (101.8 bb)
BB: $10.12 (202.4 bb)
UTG: $11.36 (227.2 bb)
MP: $10.39 (207.8 bb)
CO: $8.72 (174.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $5.28 (105.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with T A
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.10, SB raises to $0.32, BB folds, Hero calls $0.22

Flop: ($0.69) 8 J 7 (2 players)
SB bets $0.38, Hero raises to $1.10, SB raises to $4.77 and is all-in, Hero folds

Preflop: Standard.

Flop: I have a gutshot and an overcard, so I think It's cool spot to raise his cbet. I expect him to fold something like AQ-AK right away, but I'm also planning to shove the turn if he calls, especially :spade:, because expect him to fold QQ+. When he 3bets, nothing can do.

SB: 33/17/12,5/13 (VPIP/PFR/3B/H)

tbh i like flop raise becuse with overpairs and 2 pairs and sets prob he would bet more on that type of flop, so with raise we can make him fold hands like AQ AK, but thats about it i would raise like 80 cents.

0.80 is a min raise, which is awful.

i think people are unable to fold any overpair with a ♠, and if they call flop i don't think it's a good idea to try to get them off QQ+. that said i find the raise kinda cool for random reasons

nitrol, you are probably right that the sample is too small for my assumptions, but I have to start somewhere, so I have used general ranges and common reads. Given the limited information I have, he doesn't seem like complete fish or something, imo.

Tomaloc, do you think he won't fold an overpair ott? I probably would if was him. ♦

Thank you all for the comments!

i think the default nl5 reg play is to not fold rather than fold (even though they should given player tendencies)

the cool part about raising is something like you make better overcards fold and can secure a free card ott in most cases, also against the range you're isolating yourself against the A is also most often an out (and sometimes you just spike ott obv)