set on monoton board turn spot

You should hae some more stats for villain for 13k hands. Aggression? WTSD? At first glimpse fold seems the correct play imo.

X behind turn.

Originally posted by nitrol
X behind turn.

Are you kidding? :)) Of course

I would also x behind turn. Define range he calls flop raises with on a monotone board.

By checking behind we will give all his one combos free card.

He could do this with KK/JJ = 6 combos. But he could also do this with KJ and 44 = 12 combos. He could do this with A♠:X or even Y:spade:Z and even a straight draw. He is not very likely to do this with a nut flush. Against most of these hands you are ahead. If you are up against a flush, you have outs. Besides, I don't like folding sets 100bb deep. Call!

(With this perhaps overly optimistic range, we are a huge favorite.)

Edit: We need only win slightly less than 33% of the time.

A♠T+ ,Q♠T+ ,KJ ,broadway ,JJ ,KK,
VS this range ,equilab says you have 44.21% equity
pot odds is 44.03%

its close but i think a fold is correct because his range might be a bit tighter

I flat flop in the first place

Originally posted by bonecore
A♠T+ ,Q♠T+ ,KJ ,broadway ,JJ ,KK,
VS this range ,equilab says you have 44.21% equity
pot odds is 44.03%

its close but i think a fold is correct because his range might be a bit tighter

Versus that range it is a trivial call if it gives 44% equity. The pot is offering better than 2:1 unless my math is off.

you are right ... i miscalculated.
pot odds = 30%