River problem

Without any notes on him I would fold, despite his play is not making any sense.

The only hand that makes senseis 55.

Originally posted by nitrol
The only hand that makes senseis 55.

Why would he call turn then?

I also think he slowplayed a set, but I think it's more likely he had 77 or 22.

What did you plan to do on the flop? Check/fold or check/call? I belive we can check/call, but not sure can we cbet? As played, turn and river looks fine to me and I would fold river. We probably have the best hand in some percentage, but, given his sizing, I don't think it would be often enough to make the call profitable.

so we lose to uh 4-5 combos not discounting slowplays? sizing sucks, but i'm not buying it. call

his sizing on river indicates that he is close to 0% bluffing. I think A5 would make a smaller raise...

could be smthing like KTs he turns to bluff cause u look capped to some weak Ax u prob. fold vs. shove. Anyhow he doesn't rep anything I would snap call.

sry not shove, 4x raise.

Not cbetting this flop is a mistake IMO. If our plan is to c/c because we want to induce a cbet it`s not a great idea because a decent opponent would fire many turns also + our c-bet range becomes INCREDIBLY inbalanced.

There are no decent opponents playing nl10 regularly. You can't cbet this if you want to do it for value if we expect villain to not call overly wide. Ofc you can make this a +Ev cbet by betting flop + turn turning your hand into a bluff targetting middlepairs to fold + having basically 6 outs vs Kx. It would be a pretty good play imo.

But x/call flop is super standard, u should also x/call all middlepairs and x/call some Kx. Nl10 you can throw balance out of the window and usually if you have a good 3-street plan for your whole range you never end up being too unbalanced....

From a GTO perspective, you should call with 37% of your bluff catchers (if I got the math right). As the hand played out, A7 is your very strongest hand here (unless you play 55 this way). But I don't blame you for folding, People love slowplaying sets, and he probably had one.

Think about it, if you call with sets+ (few of which are in your range here, unless you slowplay them OOP), you are exploitable.

This also shows that it is a mistake to not c-bet that flop, dry as hell. Your range is capped - at A7 - again assuming you don't slowplay sets.

Originally posted by tukioppilas62
There are no decent opponents playing nl10 regularly. You can't cbet this if you want to do it for value if we expect villain to not call overly wide. Ofc you can make this a +Ev cbet by betting flop + turn turning your hand into a bluff targetting middlepairs to fold + having basically 6 outs vs Kx. It would be a pretty good play imo.

But x/call flop is super standard, u should also x/call all middlepairs and x/call some Kx. Nl10 you can throw balance out of the window and usually if you have a good 3-street plan for your whole range you never end up being too unbalanced....

I recently moved up from NL10 and would double barell this board IP a lot if someone who c-bets 60% decides to c/c this dry K high board. When we c/c this we put yourselves in a pretty tough spot OTT. I also think our pair of 7s i fairly low and this is the reason you want to utilize equity denial. Becauuse when opponents c/bets his QJ and hits his queen on the turn it goes pretty badly for us. When we add the fact that he would sometimes barell again we are in a tough spot.
I guess you haven`t played NL10 soon but games evolved so much. I encountered opponents who started to 5bet me light correctly. i saw guys c/shipping their TPGK SDV type hand on the river when the flush completes turning it into a bluff on good textures etc. I`m not saying NL10 is the nutz but we should definately look more deeply into our line. THank you for your perspective!

The range he bet's vs. missed cbet is usually a very bluffheavy range espc. once we block set of sevens. 22,77, KQs, maybe are the value combos he want's to bet 3-street's for value.

It's like 9 - 12 combos we lose against. He stabs with broadway hands he usually would fold vs. a cbet. So the value of the hand comes for hero clearly from bluffcatching with this handstrenght vs. an opponent who stabs this a lot.

I also can't see how is it tough spot for hero on the turn after we check call the flop. If the turn is like T♣: and he bet's again. OMG! What does it change - nothing. If he has hit the ten he just checks it back and if villain bet's again he reps just a super thin range again and you can bluffcatch if you are still expecting him to be bluffing some of the time.

We also block hands like AJ, AQ he would potentially float our cbet which makes this even more a bluffcatcher.

Sorry to say again but there are no good thinking players at nl10. Or if are they are going to move up fast.

if i dont have notes at villian that hes over valuebeting his strong hands i would call here at river,,, as hand is played i do think he can have a5 a2 and puting you at aq aj since you didnt bet flop,,,

but i would bet flop, bet turn and if he stays probably check call his river bet..