SH Zoom T9 Flop OESD, Turn FD

he makes small bets all over and you can represent an A.
about 2$ should be enough to fold his pair+gutshot draws or 99+

I would raise a flop. He should fold a ton.

This flop is better for you to raise.

Originally posted by nitrol
This flop is better for you to raise.

To me it seems a bit too strong for bluffing. It would suck if he 3bets me...

You have 32-34 % vs. his top range (sets +OP). If the raise is not big you could call.

Actually here I think it would be better to raise him on the turn.

Raising flop is fine. Raising turn is not fine because an A hits a UTG range hard, but the flop didn't, so a flop 3-bet is unlikely. But the A is a good card to call because you can get in a big river raise if you hit your 15 outs, and, as here, take the pot down with a river bluff.

Originally posted by YohanN7
Raising flop is fine. Raising turn is not fine because an A hits a UTG range hard, but the flop didn't, so a flop 3-bet is unlikely. But the A is a good card to call because you can get in a big river raise if you hit your 15 outs, and, as here, take the pot down with a river bluff.

I bluffed the river, but not sure what would be the best sizing.

There are two principles. The first is obvious: Bet enough to get the job done, but not much more. The second is less obvious: When in doubt, err on the high side rather on the low side. This last principle applies to other types of bets as well. (If you happen to have Sklansky's No Limit book, you can read about it there, as well as about sizing in general.)

Edit: For the first principle, pick first a "target". What do you want him to fold? Then, what can you represent? Base your estimate on the answer to those questions.

isnt it good if size of bets is similiar as valuebet size? i mean for a good player it will be really easy to read if your beting sizes if differnt.

Definitely. That should be pretty much automatic. You represent something (perhaps a good A or an accidental two pair with 87s or A3s here) that you now want to valuebet versus a reasonable range on part of the opponent (worse A and smaller pairs). Trying to represent a set and betting really big is probably too risky. First off, a set should raise somewhere before the river. Even if it does slowplay all the way to the river, why bet big when the opponent represents something less than a premium A? The whole story must make sense.

By the way, the board texture and betting pattern here isn't ideal for bluffing i m o. There seems to be two choices. I personally devalue the chances that he has a pair 77 trough KK. These should be less apt to fire on turn. That is, either bet small targeting trash better than our T high. It doesn't matter really what we represent because he can't call with K high and hardly with 44 which is unlikely anyhow. Or, bet normal (repping max two pair), targeting all pairs.

EDIT: Make the bet slightly bigger than a normal value bet (principle two above). We certainly have busted draws in our range that want to bluff.

A better board layout to bluff would be if there were three spades or three diamonds, but otherwise the same. Then we should definitely target all pairs with a normal bet because the chances that we get a call goes down (we were in reality drawing to a flush and played it that way). We can even make the bet somewhat smaller giving us both better odds and better fold equity.

I would bet $6.25 OTR, the goal is to fold his premium Aces he would c/c with(A huge part of his range IMO). This is only if you balance it properly and overbet some rivers for value, if you don`t then you shouldn`t do it here. As we`re IP and he`ll fold his overpairs a ton OTF raising a set on this board is not always best and we still have sets/2pair in our range.

if he's folding his overpairs a lot isn't he overfolding -> shouldn't we overbluff?
otr aren't you saying that a overbet will fold pretty much close to 100% of his range (how often does he check set/2p)? if you think that's the case then just do it unbalanced, the average reg doesn't give a fuck unless your frequencies are super obviously out of line.
[edit: i wouldn't do it, but i don't hate it]

Not raising sets at the latest on turn is just FPS on that board. The goal is to stack him, and he will call with his draws, two pairs and maybe some good aces. Waiting until river is RIO since now you don't get anything from his busted draws and will pay dearly to his suck-outs. You are representing a set when sou shouldn't have one (i m o, but not yours obv=)). Dangerous. (Irrelevant: I just picked off two big river bluffs with hands far down in my bluff-catching range where the story didn't hold up for inspection:])

To be honest i would raise a set on this texture also, as this is the optimal play, many bad regs play it like that and you shouldn`t predict opponent`s ranges on NL10 by judging their play in comparison to the optimal one you would`ve made IMO. On Nl200 i am sure overbetting this river is pretty marginal if not bad. I soon moved up from NL10 and my observations are that players are calling massive river bets only with the top of their range, i implemented this overbet thing pretty successfully when they checked into me not to be results oriented though.

I believe he has something like KK-99, AK-AT there. Sometimes he might have 98. Busted draws are also possible, but not that much, I would say. So, I wouldn't give him total air on the river almost ever, but the best hand he has is TP. With checking the river he clearly shows that is capped. The question for me is - would he fold a pair to 1/2 or 2/3 bet often enough to make my bluff probitable? I wouldn't say so. I see him calling most of the range I gave him, at least 80% of it. He sees that draws are busted and could assume that I would raise sets on the flop/turn. That's why I decided to play his range and make an overbet, slightly over the pot size. Fortunatelly, he folded.

Originally posted by Alleen86
I believe he has something like KK-99, ...

Maybe, but those hands are the worst to bluff with. Few better hands are folding, and few worse are calling. In other words, these are precisely the hands you should discount. (I believe in the aces though, but more of them, like suited A + rag.)

Air is good to bluff with though, especially with some draws. Plenty of better hands will fold. Even a few worse draws will call. I think this is basic.

Thus a small bet will fold out his air that is more likely than 77-KK.