River bet or not? Part 1

mmmm. I cannot decide whether your hand is good to isolate if we have that BB behind us. BB will definately join us and we will be OOP postflop vs 2.
What do you think about x/calling the flop?

Pair + FD + GS seems like a 3bet on the flop to me! it's legitimate that he has some slowplayed premiums in here which makes life better for us because he doesnt JUST have sets and straights. i think fish can also play this way with decent TP hands and maybe QT or QJ could also do this, but its hard to know for sure. What we do know is that we have a ton of equity in the hand and we likely have a little bit (at least) of fold equity. Even against 32 combos of straights and 7 combos of sets we have 35% equity. Add in JT into there and we have 38% equity... if he ever folds to a flop raise then pretty sure 3bet/calling is going to be +EV. don't like calling down to hit.

As played river is a xf because we beat none of his value range and i don't expect a fish like this to be bluffing 3 streets after raising this flop. Not even sure how I feel about calling the turn now actually since we could potentially be drawing dead to JT or TT etc. Don't really see what donking the river achieves other than getting jammed on by the nuts

Originally posted by DrDunne
As played river is a xf because we beat none of his value range and i don't expect a fish like this to be bluffing 3 streets after raising this flop. Not even sure how I feel about calling the turn now actually since we could potentially be drawing dead to JT or TT etc. Don't really see what donking the river achieves other than getting jammed on by the nuts

Agreed -- I did not bet because of all the made hands that could be out there.
I called the flop and turn since I have decent odds for my 12-out draw -- and never drawing *quite* dead as the 8♠: gives me a straight flush

I did avoid betting the river because I could not answer the question, "what worse would call?"

Villain held K♣:3♣:
So noted,
VS

Yeah calling can't be too bad. It's just you can always justify calling down when you have >33% equity because that will always be +EV but I think getting it in is just better and easier. You can always use the same logic to getting it in - you have decent equity with your 12 out draw (you may well actually have ~17 outs) and you're never drawing quite dead when he calls ♦

What about x/raising the flop then?

Is isolating this hand preflop standard? I don't like to isolate in this situation, but maybe I'm wrong. I like completting there more. No fear that BB will raise and we will be able to attack alot of boards postflop.

Originally posted by Alleen86
Is isolating this hand preflop standard? I don't like to isolate in this situation, but maybe I'm wrong.

I like the isolation against the button, because many players limp the button only to see a cheap flop and be in position. The fact that BB called was not to my liking.

OTR I'd c/f, because you have 2 weak pair on a paired, wet board. Suppose he doesn't bluff, no worse hands will call here because there aren't quite any.

Here is the full hand:

BB is calling 36% of pre-flop raises, and on this site I'm decently tight (24/15) which is nitty for here, so he may have been trying to just push me out.

In the following, I extend the standard BB defense to include his actual hand
The flop bet was intended as a semi-bluff, but my equity vs this range is:

Board: T♠9♦J♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    70.66%  69.52%   1.14% { 9s7s }
MP3    29.34%  28.20%   1.14% { 33+, A2s+, K3s+, QJs, A2o+, K8o+, QJo }

so I'm calling all day. Check/raise might be an idea for the future, but I'm not prepared to x/r/f so x/c seems best.
The problem with x/r IMO is that it is entirely possible that he has a made hand already, but I have outs enough to call for direct pot odds, but I'm not ready to get the $ in just yet.

Turn card sux.

And I think we've covered the river well.

Thanks, all!
VS

seems like an easy xc flop turn i guess

That is exactly what I first suggested but they said it was too weak.