Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

MSS 99 spewy squeeze

6 Posts
4 Users
0 Reactions
700 Views
Gonchan
Joined: 14.06.2011

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $11.31 (45.2 bb)
BB: $81.32 (325.3 bb)
UTG+1: $25 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $32.39 (129.6 bb)
MP1: $13.33 (53.3 bb)
MP2: $27.79 (111.2 bb)
MP3: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
CO: $18.69 (74.8 bb)
BTN: $25 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9 9
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.75, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BTN folds, Hero raises to $11.31 and is all-in, BB folds, UTG+2 raises to $32.39 and is all-in, 2 folds

Flop: ($24.37) T Q 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
Turn: ($24.37) 4 (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($24.37) K (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results:

Spoiler

$24.37 pot ($1.10 rake)
Final Board: T Q 2 4 K
Hero showed 9 9 and lost (-$11.31 net)
UTG+2 showed A A and won $23.27 ($11.96 net)

Ok Ok, I know it spewy came from tilt.

Now I try to evaluate why this play is spewy.

UTG2 23/21/62 hands

I set his open range 77+,AJs+,AKo+,JTs+ and call my shove with QQ+,AKs

for make calc easier, MP wont call my squeeze(QQ maybe call although)

My eq if I called is 25%, 22.6*25%-11.3=-5.6$

My FE is (84-22)/84=73% so (0.75$*3+0.25)*73%=1.825$

certainly I have some FE but if I called, my eqi is terrible.

This play was -3.8$ play and IF mp can call my shove(with AK or QQ) my eq gonna worse..


Reply
Quote
5 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

PLaying that short is not ok. Maybe with your stack your play is ok.


Reply
Quote
Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

Fold equity probably isn't 73% because we have 2 more opponents in the hand, But, if we take that it is 73%, with shoving we will win $2,60 73% of the time, which is $1,90 in average. In 27% of the time he will call and in 25% of it we will win the hand. So, when we shove and he calls, we are winning $13,16 * 27/100 * 25/100 = $0,89 in average and losing $11,21 * 27/100 * 75/100 = $2,27 in average.

To sum it up, with shoving we will win $1,90 + $0,89 = $2,79 in average and lose $2,27$ in average. So, our EV with shoving is $2,79 - $2,27 = $0,52 in average, with the assumtions that the other two guys are always folding and that the estimated ranges are accurate.

I hope I did the math right. In reality, we can't expect the two other players to always fold, but shoving is probably not that terrible with the stack size we have.


Reply
Quote
Castle93
Joined: 06.06.2011

Nitrol, correct me if I'm wrong and you know the guy but he could be playing MSS which is 40BB starting stack. I used to play NL25 MSS 6max. Personally I don't hate shoving 99 but it's pretty argo on a FR table. Full ring I prefer just flatting.


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I am not arguing on the stack strategy. Maybe it is ok.


Reply
Quote
Gonchan
Joined: 14.06.2011

OMG, I forgot to use 0.27(called percentage).

As I said, MP would call my shove with QQ,AKo if UTG fold so my ev gonna worse.
And I can call for set mine so call should be better ev.


Reply
Quote