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facing potdonk AI on R with set

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Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

Play hand

$0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

Known players:
[tg]BU$11.51:///////;SB$4.85:///////;BB$4.73:///////;UTG1$4.36:///////;UTG2$5.00:///////;MP1$5.00:///////;MP2$10.99:///////;MP3$9.97:///////;CO (Hero)$5.07:///////;[/tg]

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4:d, 4:s.
UTG1 calls $0.05, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.05, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.17) 4:c, 8:s, J:c (3 players)
BB bets $0.11, UTG1 calls $0.11, Hero raises to $0.50, BB folds, UTG1 calls $0.39.

Turn: ($1.28) 7:s (2 players)
UTG1 checks, Hero bets $0.85, UTG1 calls $0.85.

River: ($2.98) 6:h (2 players)
UTG1 bets $2.96(All-In), Hero calls $2.96.

Flop is standard. I should have bet a bit bigger on T i think. I decided to call R because of all his missed draws and possible 2pair. I don't believe he would have 88, JJ or T9 (except Ts9s and Tc9c) because he would probably raise those on the turn. Given my agression in this hand he would probably check/raise R with his nuttish hands. I believe i will be good enough of the times to be profitable here.


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3 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

You can bet bigger on turn but your size is also ok.
After the donk on river I am inclined to fold. You have shown enough strength - on flop raising vs 2, betting turn...and villain's move is value only, and the board is connected.


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Thanks, i didn't consider my percieved image vs villain. If he is a somewhat thinking player he will almost never bluff or valuebet light here. If i know villain doesn't fold alot to agression on multiple streets with draws and weak holding, could i make the call then or is the river card really to bad to do so?


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YohanN7
Joined: 15.06.2009

No, the UTG1 is not a thinking player, at least it is very unlikely. He open-limped. This unfortunately increases the risk that he actually is sitting on 5x or a set. It may also increase the chance he is sitting on air. You just don't know.

Also beware of the players that are not only thinking, but think well - at least if they perceive you as a thinker. Now a well-thinker will almost always bluff unless you step up a level. The only way to avoid this leveling is to use game theory to decide when to call or fold. Sure, you can weigh in population reads, general fish reads, but don't take those reads (=guesses) too seriously. I'd never be folding JJ here, even if it is just as bad as 44 vs a straight.


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