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NL200 SEK, QsJs on AdJcTd cbet or check back flop ip?

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RainbowPonny
Joined: 19.10.2010

Im torn between checking back or cbetting this board. Villain is a 56/5 w a fold2cb of 69%
Heres my thoughts:
-argument for checking back: Midstrength hand, villain folds 69% to cbets. If i get called i think i will be beat. I dont have to protect from any overcards, A, K, Q turn is fine. Pot control.
-arguments for betting: Gets value from FD, maybe some worse Jx, Tx hands. protects me from getting bluffed off my equity on turns/rivers.

What do you think?

Boss $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2732975
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $413.28 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 10, AF: 2,6, Hands: 1014
UTG: $197.01 - VPIP: 41, PFR: 16, 3B: 1, AF: 1,5, Hands: 327
CO: $204.50 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 20, 3B: 7, AF: 2,4, Hands: 1423
Hero (BTN): $278.13 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 24, 3B: 6, AF: 5,7, Hands: 98652
SB: $740.16 - VPIP: 52, PFR: 4, 3B: 1, AF: 1,1, Hands: 429

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN with J :spade: Q :spade:
2 folds, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($11.00) J :club: A :diamond: T :diamond: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($11.00) 7 :club: (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8.25, SB folds


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3 replies
VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

Your both arguments are good imo. I'm personally more inclined to cbet here. Seems like he is folding a lot and you could make auto profit. Plus we might be with the better hand often enough.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Villain is passive calling station. You bet.


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randomdonk
Joined: 02.08.2009

if i came across this spot i would have played the same BUUUUT i'd definitely bet flop now. u don't need to protect your checking range vs this player and u can bet $2-$3 here and print money so why check which is essentially 0 ev.


Board: A♦T♦J♣
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    53.38%  50.13%   3.25% { QsJs }
MP3    46.62%  43.38%   3.25% { JJ-TT, A2s+, K6s+, Q6s+, J2s+, T2s+, 98s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J8o+, T6o+, 98o }

this range is fairly optimistic with a few gutters in there that i don't think this player continues with.
then again, making him fold every hand that has 4 or less outs every single time doesn't sound like a bad idea at all.

u also have no reason to worry about getting bluffed facing this player.
UNDERSTAND HIS STRATEGY: he flats a million hands trying to hit something good and folds when he doesn't.

on a side note, as played i would have vbet very small river, but looking in more detail i think river is a check back as he'll probably get there with every Ax this way (c/c turn, check river) plus a decent amount of slowplays.

blank river, if he has 0 slowplays and valuebets AK and AQ by the river it's still barely a bet:


Board: A♦T♦J♣ 7♣ 3♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    50.27%  48.65%   1.62% { QsJs }
MP3    49.73%  48.11%   1.62% { A9s-A8s, A6s-A2s, KJs-KTs, QTs+, J9s-J8s, J6s-J4s, J2s, T8s+, T6s-T4s, T2s, A9o-A8o, A6o-A2o, KJo-KTo, QTo+, J9o-J8o, T8o+, T6o }

very productive thread for me, thanks xD


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