Hi guys, our very active member bonecore posted this hand in the hand discussion threads. I think this is one good example for us to learn something about hand reading and equity estimation. Thank you bonecore for posting and you guys for participating
The hand:
Originally posted by bonecore
Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 playersBTN: $9.37 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 23, 3B: 21, AF: 6.5, Hands: 43
SB: $15.94 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 2.6, Hands: 3523
BB: $10.58 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 11, 3B: 5, AF: 0.0, Hands: 123
UTG: $10.69 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 8, AF: 3.0, Hands: 888
MP: $8.18 - VPIP: 54, PFR: 14, 3B: 10, AF: 0.7, Hands: 80
Hero (CO): $22.61 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 17, 3B: 6, AF: 2.3, Hands: 107108Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with Q
Q
UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.05, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.75Flop: ($2.25) J
A
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.40, UTG calls $1.40Turn: ($5.05) 6
UTG checks, Hero checksRiver: ($5.05) J
UTG bets $2.55, Hero folds
First things first, pre flop, we can't value 3bet QQ here.
That's right, we can't. If the open raiser is tight enough, probably around ~16% open raise, then 3betting AK/QQ gets a lot worse, and calling starts to be more profitable than 3betting. In this case villain (even with the low sample) will probably have less than 16% open raise UTG. So no 3bet, just call. Oh, and the sizing was just too big, 9bbs is more than enough.
Flop, so much to say about this.
Let's think, how are we making money by cbetting?
1- are we ahead against villain's continuing range? That's a very big no, we are actually crushed, no matter how you "spin" villains range (him having AK or not). Let me put it more simply: what exact combo villain continues against our cbet and we are ahead? None. Even KJs is very very optimistic for villain to continue with. So if we are way behind every combo villain continues, that pretty much means that our equity is around 7-8%... Even if villain check/calls a hand like TT/99 with club we are still 15-20% favorites. Since we need close to 50% to have a value bet, you can see the magnitude of our mistake
2- does villain fold a bunch of combos that would have pretty good equity against our hand? No... hands like TT without club are pretty much crushed.
3- does this board favours our range so hard that we are able to cbet 100% of the time? Not really. It depends on how the players construct their pre flop ranges, but Hero should not have a big range advantage (as it is usual for broadway heavy boards)
So cbeting is a very large mistake.
Ah, and considering bluffcatching river is downright suicidal in my opinion 
Villain does not find enough bluffs to make here.
Question for further discussion: what do you guys think should our worse hands that we would be able to value bet flop?
