Hi I am a SNG satellite player mainly because I like the simplicity that come with them and also because I didn't have any trouble solving an SNG hand.
However, this hand and generally every hand that deals with Future Game Simulation in one way or another is giving me a headache because I don't know what's right or wrong.
Let me give you an example:
Blind Level:
50/100 Blinds 20 Ante
Stack Sizes:
Button Chips: 1550
Small Blind Chips: 605
Big Blinds Chips: 845
Payout Structure:
1st: 50%
2nd: 50%
The top 2 players win an equal amount of money.
Reads:
SB and BB are just solid regs that are probably capable of making tough laydowns on the bubble (which we are at).
They may stick closer to ICM nash callingranges than FGS callingranges.
Maybe that is a way how to exploit them?
The Question:
The question to the Spot is as follow: What Range can the BU push profitably?
According to a rough ICM nash calculation by the holdemressources web calculator BU can push 19,1% (JJ+,Ax+,KTs+,KJo+) profitably.
However since we deal with really small stacks in the situation I thought an ICM nash calculation isn't the way to go because of the limitedness of the model and also experience tells me that this hand will have a great effect on future hands.
So that's why I tried a Future Game Simulation.
The Results of the Future Game Simulation:
Depth 4: BU Push 2,9% (KK+,AKs,A5s-A4s,AKo)
Depth 5: BU Push 17% (88+,A2s+,A8o+,A5o-A4o,K9s+,KQo,QTs+)
Depth 6: BU Push 6,5% (JJ+,ATs+,A5s-A3s,AQo+,KQs
Depth 7: BU Push 0,5% (AA)
In a different thread I got the advice that I should take the last 3 results that have a bearable calculation time and calculate the average.
This would lead to an 8% Range which I would personally create like this:
TT+,ATs+,A5s-A4s,ATo+,KQs
TT-QQ, KQs are not that clear of a shove because Ax suited perform slightly better when the callingrange is 0,5% (AA) because of blockereffects I guess. However when we deal with looser callingranges TT-QQ gain a lot of value so that's why I picked them over hands like A5o or A9s.
It is clear that the above "result" can only really be taken as an estimation and not really as a solution.
How would you go about solving this spot?
An approximation of a solution would also really help me.
Also keep in mind that the FGS is also a limited model that doesn't take everything into account (player tendencies, Blind level increases).
