ZOOM | Hero-call or not with TPTK?

One way to solve hands like this one (call or not on river) is to let Equilab do the math for you. All you have to do is (besides understanding the math) to give him a range.

So, giving him a few bluffs (like QQ) and not letting him slowplay all sets,

Board: K♦9♠8♣ T♦ 7♠
       Equity     Win     Tie
CO     68.92%  68.92%   0.00% { QQ-99, AQs, KJs, KJo }
SB     31.08%  31.08%   0.00% { AdKs }

Not a perfect range estimate, but it is better for you to do it yourself. I am folding here, but it is quite close. (You need about 30% for break even.)

I think that's a must fold.

I've checked my database to see if I can back that up with evidence from what I've seen, and I can (sort of - just a few hands, so no statistical significance to what I see, just a few observed hands...)

I filtered by boards that have a 4 card straight and rivers where my opponent bet between 80% and 120% of the pot.

I don't see any examples where my opponent has less than top pair (just 3 hands).

Of 7 hands ...
I folded 3 hands (NL5) so did not see my opponents cards.
1 hand at NL5 I called (the straight was A234) and my opponent had A3 (2 pair)
1 hand at NL2, board was 97654 and I reraised with T8 - opponent called with K8
Another hand at NL2, I called and lost (I had the idiots end of the straight - he had the better straight - pot was small - 10xBB)
Final hand at NL2 I folded...

Summary - 7 hands - 4 I don't know what my opponent had, of the 3 remaining hands, 2 were straights and the worst was 2 pair.

I just don't see your opponent having worse often enough.....

I'm interested that Johan thinks its quite close (I'd pay more attention to others than my views....)

A good player will bluff pretty much exactly 30% of the time, give or take a little for exploitation, depending on who he is up against. But that reasoning goes out the window in low stakes. It is therefore a fold. Also, a good player for some reason playing at the micros might bluff less, on the theory that micro-players call too much.

B t w, ignore my range example above, it is a little strange. But the number 30% is about correct for a balanced player.

Thank you guys very much for the feedback! Well we can add 1 more instance to the database, in the hand I decided to call and was beaten by QJ...

In retrospect I do believe I should've folded, my opponent made a strange call on the flop with a gutshot, unfortunately I gave him the implied odds that justified it.

With 4-to-a-straight on the board we should fold here.