To bluff river or not to bluff

No need to bluff here, imo. You will get called by hands that beat you.

Do you check / call then otr?

this is a spot overbet bluffing could be good - the best hand he can have is KQ... mayyybe 33 but even that raises the turn sometimes

the only risk is he hero's with KQ because he decides he's blocking KK/QQ but nits don't normally like to make big pot decisions without the nuts

If you are betting you need to overbet IMO

What size of an overbet would you use here?

in game I wouldn't be quick enough to think about it, but from reviewing the hands it seems meets the general criteria for overbetting

capped range, villain unlikely to be suspicious / station, we can have value combos & it's difficult for him to have the nuts without a slowplay

Initially I thought like €10 when I read the hand but maybe €14 2x pot really applies the most pressure even to the very top of his range but then when you get to 14 your basically close to just shipping - not really an expert in this spot but it's something i'm working on

In game I would probably give up but if I´m thinking about it, overbet like 1,5x pot can be OK here since from stronger hands he has only KQ and maybe 33 which can both raise OTF or OTT. We have in our range KK+, all KQ, 33 so our range is much stronger.

Do we have enough bluffs otr to balance our strong hands? I guess besides 2-3 combos of FD we have also JT?

I think that what called us on turn will call the river too.

Very drawy board so bet bigger both flop+turn. River is a check/fold imo. We block many of his flush draw combos, and he still can have a worse flush draw or TJ OTR which we do beat, so we even have some showdown value here. I'd prefer bluffing with JT since it's pretty much the bottom of our range OTR.

iiikrrr imo we have close to zero showdown value here, villian hardly ever gets to the river here with worse

When we check I'd guess we win like 5% of the time but vs the right opponent we may have a +EV bluff

The only problem is I think the overbet would work great against a looser player / reg because they can more Kx in their range whereas i guess villian here mostly likely have KQ, AK (which we block some combos of) may not even call KJs pre but we don't know or if he 3bets AK

given our value combos here if we want to be balanced atall we should bluff this type of hand and missed flushes / some sd's, i think a 2/3 bet gets called enough, and for the overbet try it and see... he's cold calling 15% which is a decent ammount but soo small sample & in general nits at zoom at the nittiest nits of all so vs this guy maybe just give up but remember these spots

We hold the nut missed draws. Why bluff with them?

to make him fold better hands

I overbet quite often and just from experience I really think you're gonna get called if you do it here. Nowadays many ppl are really suspicious of overbets and will station if you give them any reason to. Don't have to win every hand and it's fine to just 2barrel and give up here with this. It's true we can have QQ/KK and he can't, but still he won't fold TP if you overbet. If he has Qx then we probably don't need to overbet to make him fold it.