Skip to forum
Notifications
Clear all

Set vs turn raise on dry

12 Posts
7 Users
3 Reactions
919 Views
PacnyTuH0
Joined: 02.05.2007

Villain is 22/18 over 500 hands. Turn cbet is 78%

Turn, now that he shoves, how often does he have 2 pair that shove?
His turn bet is 1/2 pot, but why would he shove JJ/AA for so much?
What does he think I call with here?

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

BTN: $10 (100 bb)
SB: $12.55 (125.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $11.43 (114.3 bb)
MP: $4.69 (46.9 bb)
CO: $17.25 (172.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9♠ 9♦
MP folds, CO raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) A♦ J♥ 9♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.31, Hero calls $0.31

Turn: ($1.27) 6♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.66, Hero raises to $2, CO raises to $16.64 and is all-in, Hero ???


Reply
Quote
11 replies
VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

I don't see anything different besides AA or JJ playing this way. Maybe 66?


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Don't you yhink that AA, JJ would bet bigger?


Reply
Quote
livethelife7
Joined: 10.02.2009

Im not folding the 3rd nuts here. If he has AA, JJ , good for him (don't forget it's only 6 combo's). He can have here AJ, A9, 66 even A6 or some random draws/spew.

You need really strong reads to think about folding in this spot IMO.


Reply
Quote
VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

Actually if we add only AJs to AA,JJ,66 our call is correct. I agree he could have some draws also, esp. with his betsize. So, hope you have not folded.


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I also think we should call here. It is nonsense to call preflop and theb fold our set on a drawy board.


Reply
Quote
Ales851
Joined: 16.07.2012

Actually flop cbet stat would be more useful for me here to make estimate if he has 66 on the turn in his range. I believe we have to call here even if I´m not super happy in this spot. His shove can be often something like pair + nuts FD and than we have an easy call.


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

It is a weird spot but still we have to call.


Reply
Quote
mattyvx
Joined: 15.04.2015

looks kinda like AJ or AA that's trying to milk the turn I have rarely even seen people 3bet jam the flop without a set or better think he just calls with AJ but i have no idea


Reply
Quote
inceptioner
Joined: 23.05.2012

Actually a pretty nasty call but it's a call we have to make. He has AJ, AA, JJ, 66, A6s, A9 in his range. And we can't totally count out some random spew.


Reply
Quote
Ales851
Joined: 16.07.2012

Originally posted by inceptioner
Actually a pretty nasty call but it's a call we have to make. He has AJ, AA, JJ, 66, A6s, A9 in his range. And we can't totally count out some random spew.

Doesn´t change the result but I wouldn´t expect he every time stack off his 2P combos


Reply
Quote
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Mmmmm at least all AJ combos are getting it in here.


Reply
Quote