3-barrel on semi-dry

I tried to imagine his callling range OTR and I don´t think we have a valuebet. Could be interesting if someone have another opinion about villain´s range.

Board: 4♥Q♠J♣ T♦ 5♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    43.90%  43.90%   0.00% { KdKs }
MP3    56.10%  56.10%   0.00% { QQ-JJ, 44, AQs+, KQs, QTs+, JTs, AQo+, KQo }

if he xr its a really easy decision, you just fold
can we bet though? i am not sure either, though i see a ton of AQ and we should discount some nutted hands because of no xr

I agree with the range above.
The problem with betting is if we make it small and face a raise it will be hard to decide whether we are still good.
If we holded 2p then a bet is ok.
I prefer the safe approach and xb.

think we should bet bigger on the turn or play bet check bet depending on villian

I can't help but discount alot the sets & two pairs because no flop or turn raise - looks really like a single paired hand and I don't see any slow played straights in his range but we are basically targetting AQ/KQ only which may not call anyway, think it's not unreasonable for QT to play like this also. Maybe he gets stubbern with Q9s

exploitatively it could be a thin bet / fold because i think alot of villians value range would have already raised and i never expect to get bluff - feels dirty greedy though

Maybe b/f is right then.

the reason we would choose to bet check bet vs bet bet decide would be if we thought villian was agressive enough to raise of of draws then it sucks vs a passive guy bet bet is better vs an agro i think bet check might be better

Originally posted by mattyvx
the reason we would choose to bet check bet vs bet bet decide would be if we thought villian was agressive enough to raise of of draws then it sucks vs a passive guy bet bet is better vs an agro i think bet check might be better

Interesting point but in that case what about x/b, bet, bet if we believe he´s aggresive and will often raise us. We give him opportunity to bluff turn and river or we can bet it ourselves and get lighter calls after we x/b F. It´s true that with your line we give him opportunity to bluff R too but I think people bluff raising much more on the flop than on the turn.

I do not like x flop and giving free cards. There are a lot of cards that may shut down the action.