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Strong draw in position

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Stevie8
Joined: 24.06.2012

Hand Information
Full Tilt Poker , 0.25 BB (6 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com

Table Information
Seat: 1 Player 1 ($51.47)
Seat: 2 Player 2 ($28.79)
Seat: 3 Hero ($33.8)
Seat: 4 Player 4 ($25) Dealer
Seat: 5 Player 5 ($56.5) Small Blind
Seat: 6 Player 6 ($12.85) Big Blind
Dealt to Hero
T♠9♠

Preflop (Pot:0.35)
Player 1    FOLD
Player 2    RAISE $0.9
Hero    CALL $0.9
Player 4    FOLD
Player 5    CALL $0.8
Player 6    FOLD

Flop(Pot: $2.95)
Q♣5♠Q♠

Player 5    BET $1.8
Player 2    CALL $1.8
Hero    CALL $1.8

Turn(Pot: $8.35)
Q♣5♠Q♠J♣

Player 5    CHECK
Player 2    CHECK
Hero    BET $4
Player 5    FOLD
Player 2    CALL $4

River(Pot: $16.35)
Q♣5♠Q♠J♣Q♦

Player 2    CHECK
Hero    BET $8.17
Player 2    RAISE $22.03
Hero    FOLD
Player 2    RETURN $13.86
Showdown:
Player 2 MUCKS

Player 2  wins the pot: $46.55

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Villain plays 26/21 with 2.2 aggression factor (5k sample size). From my history with him I observed that he is pretty passive postflop.
My main concern here is my bet on the turn. Was it better to just check behind ?
On the river I tried to bluff, thinking that he also had a draw. What hand would he check-call the turn and push the river with ?


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6 replies
VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

I don't see him having too much FDs. Maybe A♠:K♠: and A♠:J♠:, which of course is not folding. I see him playing AA this way. Maybe something like this on the river: KK+,KQs,QJs,AsKs,AsJs,AQo,KQo.

River is x/f imo, as the only combo that is folding is A♠K♠. I'm not sure about the bet on the turn either.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

I would give him a wider range: JJ+, 55, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AsKs, AsJs, KsJs, As8s, As7s, As6s, As4s, As3s, As2s, AQo, KQo
But still we do not beat anything and should x/f river.


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Ales851
Joined: 16.07.2012

River is clear x/f. I´m just thinking and I´m not sure about flop and turn action where our draw is not so strong. Yes, we have enough outs but we can be easily dominated.


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mattyvx
Joined: 15.04.2015

if we call pre (standard for me) and make the draw we can't fold OTF

For me the turn is a question mark if we should bet or check, in game I would have bet and we take it down a portion of the time but it really sucks if we get check raised & could be fine to check back even with the two draws because of the paired board


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Stevie8
Joined: 24.06.2012

9 / 10 times I would x/f. But because of some personal history with this guy I thought there is a good chance he just gave up his missed draw.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

No matter the history we beat only 8x fd. As we do not beat anything and nothing worse is calling.... we x/f here.


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