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Trips vs regular, check/raise on the river

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negritolindo0
Joined: 06.01.2010

Full Tilt, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $18.30 (183 bb)
BB: $15.15 (151.5 bb)
UTG: $9.90 (99 bb)
Hero (MP): $10.71 (107.1 bb)
CO: $9.90 (99 bb)
BTN: $14.63 (146.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A J
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) J 8 J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.39, BB calls $0.39

Turn: ($1.43) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.71, BB calls $0.71

River: ($2.85) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB raises to $11.70, Hero folds

Results:

Spoiler

$5.85 pot ($0.32 rake)
Final Board: J 8 J 2 7
BB mucked and won $5.53 ($2.63 net)
Hero mucked A J and lost (-$2.90 net)

Regular villian 19/15 agg: 35, wts:35, wwsf:49, 3bet: 7, cold call:10. FoldCbetFlop:37, hands: 1.2K

Flop & Turn: bet for value

River: He is not a fish and his movement is very strong, very big raise. I think the only can do this with full house.


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7 replies
nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Last night I had a similar hand (AQ) and the board was QQx.
I faced a solid raise on river and villain showed KQ.


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Hesticus
Joined: 24.06.2008

I would like to see your stats actually with this one. There is a good chance villain thought one level ahead or misperceived your hand into a big pocket pair.


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VaskataBuci
Joined: 08.08.2011

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: JdJs8c2h7s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 41.67% 41.67% 0.00% { AhJc }
BB 58.33% 58.33% 0.00% { 88, KJs, QJs, T9s, KJo }

This is reasonable range imo and the call and fold here are close. But probably he would not be overplaying hand like QJ and then we have to fold.


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nitrol
Joined: 24.07.2010

Villain reaches showdown too often and is not winning much there.
I would like to see his river aggression.


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LuckyManFromLT
Joined: 12.11.2013

Flop is okay, if he likes to stab , it's good hand to x/c F, T and OTR you have to decide if you have a value x/shove or you can just call, BB can bluff and he will be value betting many worse hands.
As played OTT you should bet bigger, around 1-1,1$.
OTR bet around 70% of the pot. When you get x/shoved he is never bluffing and vs his value range it's a fold IMO. Vs smaller rise you would have to call.


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Alleen86
Joined: 27.05.2010

I don't think he would wait untill the river to bluff, so I think he is almost never bluffing there. The question is would he overplay his KJ or QJ. I think not. Overall, I believe we are mostly against a fullhouse there. 88, 22, and 77 are all possible, imo (22 not so much, though).


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Lathdari
Joined: 07.10.2014

I'm not sure KJo is in Villain's pre-flop range here. It seems to me that depending on the assumptions we make about Villain the call is somewhere between marginal and burning money, so we should fold.


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